Cryptocurrency bettors aren't expecting any change to the Federal Reserve’s policy in July, following the central bank’s unanimous decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged on Wednesday.
Polyamarket Projects Rates To Remain Steady
Traders on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket believed there was roughly an 80% chance that rates would remain unchanged during the next meeting on July 29, while the chances of a 25 basis point increase stood at 25%.
Bets in favor of rates falling below the current 3.50%–3.75% range remained very low. Over $11.8 million has already been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the most traded contracts on Polymarket.
These predictions broadly aligned with the CME FedWatch tracker, which currently estimates a 70% chance of rates remaining steady in July. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike rose to almost 30%, up from 8.5% the previous day.
The Hawkish Pivot Under Warsh
Markets fell sharply after the Summary of Economic Projections showed the officials leaning toward one rate hike this year—a clear change from March's forecast, which signaled one additional rate cut.
Nine officials expected a rate increase by year-end, and the median saw the funds rate at 3.8% by the end of 2026.
However, Kevin Warsh, in his first press conference as Fed Chair, downplayed the dot plot and declined to back the market's expectation that a hike is certain.
Warsh abstained from submitting his own rate projection, adding, "For me, it's not helpful in the conduct of policy."
Photo Courtesy: Andrew Angelov on Shutterstock.com
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