Steve Eisman, the investor made famous by “The Big Short,” has spent months warning the AI trade looks stretched. On his latest Weekly Wrap, he sharpened that case again, but pointedly kept a few names out of it.

The Hyperscalers Are Becoming Airlines

Eisman’s main worry is how much cash the AI race now demands.

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is raising around $85 billion in fresh equity, its first such raise since 2005, to fund AI spending that may approach $190 billion in 2026, according to Eisman. Meta and Microsoft are likely to follow, he said.

He compared the cloud giants to airlines, capital-hungry businesses with little pricing power.

Eisman cited a report that OpenAI is weighing lower token prices, which he reads as proof the models lack a moat and increasingly compete like a commodity.

He also flagged data centers’ heavy energy and water needs, where community pushback may slow the buildout.

Eisman noted the government suspended Anthropic’s most advanced models on security grounds and suggested Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), an OpenAI backer, tipped regulators off, though Amazon also backs Anthropic.

The Picks And Shovels Look Better

The smarter bet, Eisman argued, is the suppliers.

His model is TransDigm Group (NYSE:TDG), a little-known firm that makes specialized aircraft parts, often as the only supplier, and uses that grip to keep raising prices on the airlines that need them.

The supplier wins while the carrier struggles.

He sees the same split in AI.

The lasting profits, he argued, will go to the companies that sell the gear, not the cloud giants buying it. The suppliers he favors include Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), the group’s bellwether, plus network-equipment makers Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE:ANET) and Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO).

Nvidia’s latest quarterly revenue grew about 85% from a year earlier.

That acceleration, Eisman said, means the story is not over.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket traders have crept higher on the risk. The platform’s bubble-burst market now prices about a 20% chance the AI bubble pops by the end of 2026, up from the high teens this spring, on close to $3 million in volume.

Conviction on the leaders is firmer. Its largest-company market gives Nvidia a 74% chance of finishing 2026 as the world’s most valuable company.

Eisman voiced similar nerves about the rally a month ago, trimming his high-flyers as Treasury yields climbed.

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