Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) more than doubled its European car registrations in May, but China’s BYD Co. (OTC:BYDDY) has still sold more cars in the region this year.

Tesla registered 28,610 vehicles across Europe last month, a 107.9% jump and its fourth straight month of growth, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.

That ran about even with BYD, which logged around 27,641 registrations across its biggest European markets.

Who Is Actually Selling More Cars

BYD has registered about 128,900 vehicles in Europe through May, ahead of Tesla’s 118,068, and it has outsold the American carmaker in most months of 2026.

BYD’s tally includes plug-in hybrids, while Tesla sells only pure EVs.

But the broader picture is worse for Tesla: Chinese brands together took about 7.3% of the wider European market early in the year, more than three times Tesla’s share, with Chery and Leapmotor each posting triple-digit growth.

Tesla’s own rebound is partly a weak-base story, since its European registrations fell roughly 27% in 2025. A refreshed Model Y, Germany’s revived EV subsidy, and higher fuel prices have since pulled buyers back.

What Traders Are Pricing Into The Next Print

U.S. deliveries fell an estimated 15% in May as high borrowing costs weigh on demand, and Polymarket now puts around 80% odds on zero Fed rate cuts in 2026.

That keeps auto loans expensive and leaves Europe to carry second-quarter volume.

On the delivery question, traders see Tesla’s Q2 deliveries most likely landing between 450,000 and 475,000, the leading band at about 61%, up from 358,023 in the first quarter.

The 475,000-plus blowout is sitting at 15%.

CEO Elon Musk exercised about 304 million options worth more than $110 billion from his reinstated 2018 pay package this month, lifting his stake to roughly 19.9%.

Tesla has also raised its 2026 capital spending plan to about $25 billion from $20 billion to fund AI, robotaxi, and factory expansion, a bet that should pressure free cash flow this year.

Goldman Sachs said this week that global EV adoption is accelerating fast enough to start denting oil demand by late 2027.

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