21Shares has walked back its prediction that Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) four-year cycle had broken, now projecting a year-end recovery to $100,000 instead.

Why The Cycle Call Got Reversed

Bitcoin topped near $126,000 last October, then dropped roughly 50%, a milder collapse than the 80%+ crashes seen in prior cycles. 

Price has not broken below the $54,000 aggregate cost basis, the line that historically marked full capitulation in past downturns.

Meanwhile, wallet counts keep climbing and ETF ownership keeps shifting toward institutions. 21Shares points to that combination as evidence of a maturing market rather than proof the cycle pattern disappeared.

Treasury Companies Are Taking The Brunt Of The Damage

Roughly 200 public companies now hold 1.28 million BTC combined, clearing the coin-count target 21Shares set last year. 

However, that stack is worth only $100 billion in dollar terms against a $250 billion goal, since price fell short rather than accumulation slowing down.

That gap is already forcing real sales. Nakamoto Holdings dumped Bitcoin at a roughly 40% loss, with its shares down 99% from 2025 highs. 

MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) liquidated more than 15,000 BTC to pay down debt. Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) sold Bitcoin for the first time in four years, a small 32-coin sale tied to preferred dividends, before resuming purchases just a week later.

Moreover, thirteen of 18 major treasury vehicles now trade below the value of their own Bitcoin holdings, which makes accumulation the obvious move for anyone sitting on fresh capital. 

Twenty One Capital, one of the few names still trading above its coin value, is pursuing a merger with Strike and Elektron Energy to build a vertically integrated Bitcoin company.

ETF Assets Fell Even As Coin Holdings Stayed Near Records

Global crypto ETP assets dropped from $172 billion at the end of 2025 to roughly $140 billion by May, a 15% year-to-date decline driven entirely by price weakness rather than investors pulling out. 

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3 billion in net outflows, yet still hold 1.25 million coins, just 8% off their all-time peak.

That gap between outflows and coin holdings matters. It suggests holders are riding out the drawdown rather than exiting their positions outright. 

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) launched the first bank-issued spot Bitcoin ETF in April, while BlackRock (NASDAQ:BLK) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) now race competing options-income products to market, adding more entry points right as price recovers.

The Common Thread Behind Every Missed Target

Every prediction that fell short in this report traces back to the same root cause. 

Bitcoin’s price simply came in below expectations, and that single shortfall dragged down every dollar-denominated metric in the scorecard, even as coin-based adoption, wallets, ETF holdings, and corporate accumulation kept climbing the entire time.

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