"One of these days, Alice—pow! Straight to the moon!”

This iconic phrase was used almost daily by Ralph Kramden to his wife, Alice, in the 1950s sitcom, The Honeymooners. Yes, I realize I’m dating myself here, and very possibly most of you reading this, but today this phrase would be only slightly edited with "Alice" supplanted by "client’s name" and the "moon" would now be "Mars." Hopefully this is enough of hint that I’m speaking about the mother of all IPO’s, at least up until now, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, it would have been impossible to avoid any, if not all, of the hype and hoopla surrounding this newest listed Elon Musk stock and his quest to become the world’s first trillionaire. He accomplished this the day SpaceX opened for trading.

If you were fortunate enough to have received stock at the IPO price of $135, congratulations. My firm, LCM Capital Management, does not own the stock for our clients as of today and the reason isn’t because we feel that SpaceX is a fly by night company (pun intended), it’s just we have an aversion to paying 120x revenue for a company that would possibly open 30% – 40% higher from where it was priced.

Now if you ask the main underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, they’d recommend you buy it since both have projections that are out of this world. (Sorry can’t help myself). Morgan Stanley said SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040; yes, you read that correctly. Goldman Sachs told investors, revenue would exceed $470 billion in 2030. As a reference, SpaceX revenue in 2025 was approximately $18.7 billion and as a reminder, the year is 2026. To the moon dear reader.

Clearly the underwriters have a book of business as well as their reputation to protect but if you have read any of our previous Benzinga articles then you know my firm believes Wall Street and its analysts are full of liquid methane, amongst other things, most of the time. These firms can’t even predict with much certainty where a stock will be in a year let alone where oil prices or the S&P 500 will be in 12 months and yet they are going to tell investors what revenue will be in four or 14 years from today.  Not a chance.

Now it’s not just the bankers who are selling this, Mr. Musk is all in as well and, like the bankers and underwriters, his motives are purely selfish. For the record, Mr. Musk is a true visionary and what he has built over his career is nothing short of spectacular. However, just after the IPO he posted on X (June 14) that he expects SpaceX revenue to reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030 and likely more in 2031. To put this in perspective, to get there in five to six years would require roughly a 53-fold increase. Not exactly something that seems within reality.

Remember, this is the same man who in 2020 said Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, up from 500,000 in 2020. * To put this in perspective, Tesla vehicles sales in 2025 were just over 1.6 million.   Elon’s predictions have been given the name, "corporate puffery", and for the record, I would have used different words.

SpaceX will be a successful and quite possibly very profitable company someday, just not tomorrow or when these analysts think it will be.

Always remember, we believe Wall Street’s job is selling products/investments to investors so that they can make money to pay for their private jets and yachts. So, whether it is actively traded mutual funds that continually underperform the S&P 500, private credit funds or listening to economists and market strategists, just remember whose interest these firms are looking out for first and foremost.

There is a better way.

* Tesla first disclosed in its 2020 Impact Report and repeated in 2021 and 2022. He later quietly dropped that wording — after making the claim in the 2021 and 2022 annual impact reports, the automaker dropped it in its latest edition.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.