Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be entering an accumulation zone after a rare signal—historically associated with major cycle bottoms—appeared, a prominent analyst argued on Tuesday.

10.5 Million BTC Held At Loss

In an X post on June 30, crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez said 10.45 million BTC are currently being held at a loss, surpassing the 9.60 million BTC still in profit for the first time during the current market cycle.

Similar crossovers have occurred only five times over Bitcoin’s 15-year history: 2011, 2014, 2018, the COVID-induced selloff in 2020, and now in June 2026.

Each previous occurrence eventually preceded the formation of a major market bottom, although the process ranged from a few weeks to several months before a sustained uptrend emerged.

Martinez said the latest inversion suggests speculative excess has largely been flushed from the market and places Bitcoin inside what he called a "high-conviction accumulation zone."

Momentum, Whales Support Bottoming Thesis

Scott Melker said in an X post on June 30 that the dominant market consensus remains that Bitcoin is headed significantly lower, but argued several independent indicators now resemble previous cycle lows.

He pointed to confirmed weekly and daily bullish divergences, improving momentum despite depressed prices, and support around the 50-month moving average and the 200-week moving average,.

He also highlighted on-chain data showing what he described as the fastest whale accumulation on record.

According to Melker, large holders who distributed near the market top are now aggressively accumulating while sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.

Strategy Narrative Could Reverse

Melker argued that the current bearish narrative has shifted away from Bitcoin itself toward concerns surrounding Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and its ability to continue financing Bitcoin purchases.

He said much of the bearish case assumes Bitcoin continues falling.

“Perhaps the market has cause and effect backwards,” Melker said, suggesting Bitcoin’s recovery could resolve many of Strategy’s challenges rather than the other way around.

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