Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may still be trapped in a painful bear-market phase, but VanEck’s Matthew Sigel predicts BTC will trade “materially higher” over the next 12 months as the 4-year cycle remains intact.

"BTC Materially Higher In One Year"

In an interview with Scott Melker on July 5, Sigel said the market is waiting for a stronger fundamental catalyst to restore confidence.

He believes regulatory clarity, progress on a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve or continued sovereign adoption could act as triggers.

Sigel noted that 22 countries are either mining or holding BTC at the sovereign level, with the trend adding one or two countries a year.

However, he warned that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim its all-time high by early 2028, VanEck may need to reassess its long-term thesis.

VanEck’s NODE fund has outperformed Bitcoin by favoring infrastructure companies, avoiding weaker crypto IPOs and leaning into miners benefiting from the AI power-demand theme.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Remains Intact

In a podcast on July 6, Benjamin Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact, saying 2026 has closely mirrored the 2018 bear market but with lower volatility.

He points to a similar sequence of a February low, higher low in March/April, rejection at the 200-day moving average in May, and a sweep of the February low in late June.

Cowen expects a short-term relief rally through July, potentially back toward the 200-day moving average, followed by renewed weakness in August and September before a likely cycle bottom in October or Q4.

While Cowen recommends dollar-cost averaging (DCA) during the second half of the midterm year and not timing the exact low, Sigel advises clients to consider building exposure gradually and aim to have a full position by October.

Sigel added that he is still "waiting and watching" before becoming more aggressive.

Bitcoin gained about 5% over the past week, briefly climbing above the $63,000 level.

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