Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) continue to show signs of long-term holder conviction, with exchange balances falling to multi-year lows.

However, recent volatility has kept spot demand subdued.

Exchange Supply Hits Historic Lows

In an X post on July 7, Santiment data shows Bitcoin’s exchange supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2017, while Ethereum’s exchange balance is near its lowest level since 2015.

This implies fewer coins are readily available for sale on centralized exchanges, reducing the risk of large exchange-driven selloffs. Historically, investors moving assets into self-custody has been viewed as a sign of long-term conviction rather than an intent to trade.

Separately, CryptoQuant data indicates Bitcoin demand has staged one of its strongest recoveries of the year. The 30-day cumulative demand metric improved from nearly -500,000 BTC a week ago to roughly -75,000 BTC.

The rebound has been driven primarily by derivatives markets, with futures demand recovering from around -295,000 BTC to slightly positive territory.

Spot demand, however, remains weak at around -78,000 BTC, suggesting long-term buyers have yet to return in force.

Ethereum At $1,500 Highly Likely

Ethereum is showing a similar divide in investor sentiment.

In an X post on July 9, trader Rain noted that almost 100,000 unique addresses deposited ETH to Binance during the recent panic selloff as prices tested the $1,500 level. At the same time, withdrawals also increased, indicating that while some investors capitulated, others accumulated the dip.

Polymarket reflects the same uncertainty. Traders currently assign a 75% probability that ETH reaches $2,000 during 2026, while simultaneously pricing a 68% chance of another decline to $1,500 before then.

Rain noted that the probability of Ethereum revisiting $1,500 has risen sharply, while expectations for a deeper decline toward $1,250 have eased.

This suggests traders increasingly view the $1,500 region as the key battleground between buyers and sellers.

Price Action: At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,700, while Ethereum changed hands near $1,740.

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