Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is approaching a support line that Fidelity’s director of global macro says has caught every major bottom since 2015.

Fidelity Has Tracked This Support Line Since 2015 And It’s Never Failed

Jurrien Timmer uses a power law model that plots Bitcoin’s entire price history on a logarithmic chart bounded by three curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trendline, and a lower support line that caught every major bottom since 2015. 

That lower support line currently sits near $58,000, and Bitcoin at $62,700 is closing in on it.

“At $60k it’s getting ever closer to its power law support line,” Timmer wrote on X. 

A secondary indicator he tracks measures how far Bitcoin trades above or below the model’s midline, and that gap has swung to negative 56%, a depth that lined up with both the 2018 and 2022 cycle lows. 

The 52-week Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen just as far, to around negative 100%.

Timmer is not calling a bottom.

He said the speculative premium that pushed Bitcoin past $120,000 last year is largely gone, global money supply growth is slowing, and no catalyst for a reversal has appeared yet. 

His view is that Bitcoin can sit near the support line for months before turning rather than snapping back quickly.

Fast money already rotated out of Bitcoin into gold, then out of gold into semiconductors, which is where the momentum chase sits now.

Eight Weeks of ETF Outflows Just Ended

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $197 million in the week ending July 10, their first green week after eight straight weeks of outflows. 

The timing matters because ETF buying moves real spot Bitcoin, meaning two separate buyer groups are now adding at the same time if institutional demand holds.

Monday’s Drop Comes From The Middle East, Not The Market

Bitcoin’s 1.5% pullback Monday reflects reignited Iran-U.S. tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, with both nations launching airstrikes against each other over the weekend. 

Some of the selling also reflects profit-taking after Bitcoin and broader crypto enjoyed a bullish stretch heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, BTC price broke down from its major rising channel in June, and the lower boundary of that channel has now flipped from support to resistance. 

The death cross from November 2025 remains intact, with the 50-day SMA at $64,589 and the 200-day at $73,747 both acting as overhead supply. 

Holding the $58,000 to $60,000 demand zone is the only thing that keeps the Fidelity accumulation thesis alive.

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