Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) said Friday he expects the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act next week, exactly one year after the House approved the crypto market structure bill.

“I’m optimistic that we get this across the line next week in the United States Senate,” Steil told Fox News from a House Financial Services field hearing in New York.

The Wisconsin Republican is not alone. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) reportedly expects a floor vote the week of July 20, with Senate Republicans releasing updated bill text following a White House meeting with President Donald Trump.

Traders Sold the Rebound Within a Day

Prediction market traders appear unconvinced. Odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 slid to 35% on Polymarket, after a brief rally toward 44% on the text release news faded within a day.

On Kalshi, traders price just a 3.6% chance that crypto market structure legislation becomes law before Aug. 1, rising to only 16% by September. The end of year contract on Kalshi trades at 36%.

The markets, which have drawn more than $3 million in combined volume, suggests traders may expect a vote without a signed law, as passage would still require House reconciliation and a presidential signature.

Zero Democrats, Seven Needed

The bill requires 60 Senate votes, meaning at least seven Democrats must cross the aisle. So far, none have backed the updated draft, with Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) reportedly calling the GOP’s ethics language “very weak.”

Democrats have pressed for provisions barring the president and senior officials from profiting off crypto, after Trump disclosed more than $1.4 billion in crypto-related income.

Steil dismissed those objections Friday. “The individuals that grandstand on the ethics side should be more supportive than anyone else about moving Clarity across the line,” he said, adding that good actors in the industry want bad actors regulated out.

Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) fell about 4.5% Friday, while Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) dropped more than 3%.

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