Cryptocurrency punters are skeptical of a U.S.-Canada trade deal this year as President Donald Trump slapped an additional 50% tariff on certain Canadian imports.
No Trade Deal In Sight?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently prices a 12% probability that a new U.S.-Canada free trade agreement becomes law in 2026. This is down 1 percentage point over the last 24 hours and 5 points over the past month.
Odds shifted after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on a wide range of goods imported from Canada, in response to what he called “discrimination” and “unequal imposition” against U.S cars, dairy and alcohol.
Trump signed three separate proclamations targeting different categories of Canadian goods, ranging from consumer goods such as wine and hockey sticks to industrial products like cement. The new rates are scheduled to take effect 30 days after the proclamations are signed.
The North American Impasse
The U.S. and Canada are parties to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which went into effect in July 2020. But the Trump administration declined to renew the agreement “in its current form” during a scheduled six-year review.
Trump has criticized the USMCA, saying the U.S. ran trade deficits with both Canada and Mexico rather than surpluses, and argued that the agreement should provide better terms for the U.S.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled in December last year that the Trump administration was evaluating a potential withdrawal from the USMCA, though no formal move has been announced since.
Last week, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian goods, blaming the country’s worsening wildfires for sending hazardous smoke across the U.S.
Image via Shutterstock/ Joey Sussman
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