President Donald Trump reportedly initiated the war against Iran believing the regime would “fold really quickly,” according to a new book by New York Times reporters Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, called “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.”

Swan, speaking Monday on the School of War podcast, said the president made what he described as a deep gut decision, brushing aside warnings that the conflict could drag on.

A Small Room and a Big Bet

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed on screen by his top generals and the head of Mossad, pitched regime change scenarios to Trump during a February situation room meeting, Swan said.

The CIA judged those scenarios unrealistic in an overnight analysis briefed to the president the next day, he added.

Trump proceeded anyway, in Swan’s telling, believing the risks flagged by Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz, would never materialize because the regime would collapse first.

Swan noted that the decision circle was kept so small that the officials responsible for managing an energy shock, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, were excluded entirely, leaving Vice President JD Vance as the sole senior official to voice serious concerns to the president.

What Traders See Now

Five months into the war, traders on Polymarket assign a 27% chance the U.S. launches a ground invasion of Iran before 2027. The contract resolves yes only if U.S. forces commence an offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory.

A separate market gives a 19% chance of an effective ceasefire by the end of the month. A nuclear deal by the end of the year is priced at just 33%.

Why It Matters to Your Portfolio

A prolonged war likely means elevated oil, and with May CPI at 4.2%, traders on Polymarket now price a 59% chance the Fed hikes rates this year.

That may favor Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), with Brent above $91, while pressuring high-multiple names like Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), whose valuations lean heavily on earnings far in the future.

Defense stocks may not offer the hedge traders expect. Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) hit an all-time high near $692 in March amid the escalation, but has given back most of those gains since a disappointing first-quarter report.

The president, according to the book, was not tracking the market fallout too closely.

When Haberman and Swan sat down with Trump in March, 17 days into the war, the Resolute Desk reportedly held printouts of maple trees rather than maps of the Middle East.

“I know how to buy good trees,” the president reportedly told the authors, explaining he was ordering maples for the White House.

Trump has disputed the book’s accuracy, calling it “largely fiction” in a Truth Social post.

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