One of the targets for Elon Musk’s compensation package for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is that the company establishes a permanent human colony on Mars.

Musk’s Mars Ambitions

Musk has repeatedly reaffirmed his Mars ambitions, and on Monday said "I will not forget about Mars" in an X post. This was after Musk argued that building a durable human foothold on Mars could act as a buffer against Earth-origin threats, from lethal outbreaks to hostile AI.

“A clear example of major risk reduction would be a deadly pandemic. Since it takes 6 months to reach Mars, there is an automatic 6 month quarantine! Even traveling at the speed of light, a deadly computer virus or AI attack can potentially be stopped due to Mars being ~4 to ~20 light-minutes from Earth,” he said.

Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $84,000 has been bet on the contract "Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?"

Bettors are not very confident that SpaceX will be able to land anything on Mars before 2030, placing a probability of 28%.

Disclaimer: Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

Musk’s Mars Timeline

The SpaceX CEO on Tuesday said that people will land on Mars in "roughly 5 to 7 years" and the Mars lander "a few years sooner."

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, however, disagrees with Musk on the timeline. In a recent interview, Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority right now is the Moon, not Mars, saying that humans on Mars are likely 10 to 15 years out.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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