Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could be approaching another period of weakness after posting a double-digit gain in July if it follows a familiar midterm-year bear market pattern.

July Often Acts As Relief

In a July 31 podcast, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that Bitcoin gained around 10% in July, consistent with prior midterm-election years when the cryptocurrency staged relief rallies after sharp declines in June.

“July in midterm years often acts as some relief,” Cowen said.

He pointed to similar patterns in 2018 and 2022, when Bitcoin rebounded from June lows before renewed selling pressure emerged during August and September.

In 2022, Bitcoin gained nearly 20% in July before declining in each of the following two months.

A similar sequence occurred in 2018, when July’s nearly 38% rally was followed by losses in August and September.

Cowen said Bitcoin’s 2026 year-to-date performance has closely tracked its 2018 trajectory, though the timing of the next decline remains uncertain.

"The next window of weakness is going to start sometime in the next two to three weeks," he said.

Can Bitcoin Reach Key Resistance?

Cowen noted that it remains unclear whether Bitcoin will reach its bear market resistance band or 200-day moving average before another correction begins.

During the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin reached its resistance band following the June low but failed to touch the 200-day moving average. In 2022, it did not reach either level during the summer rebound.

The analyst said the current rally could extend into early or mid-August, but history suggests selling pressure will likely intensify later in the quarter.

Cowen said, “We’ll see Bitcoin come back down as we get later into the month of August and notably September."

Rising Treasury Yields Add Risk

Cowen also highlighted rising U.S. Treasury yields as a potential headwind for Bitcoin.

He compared the current environment with 2023, when Bitcoin weakened after July as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed.

Cowen believes that renewed pressure from higher yields could weigh on risk assets even without additional interest-rate hikes from the Fed.

If Bitcoin follows the patterns seen in 2014, 2018, 2022 or 2023, Cowen believes another correction could unfold during the latter part of the third quarter.

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