Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call at 5 p.m. ET.
Polymarket gives the company a 95% chance of beating earnings, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Lisa Su and her team will say.
Analysts expect adjusted earnings of about $1.61 per share, up from 48 cents in a year-ago quarter burdened by an $800 million China export-control charge, on revenue of roughly $11.3 billion.
The stock is up 116% this year.
What Kalshi Predicts AMD Will Say
“Memory / HBM” is at 97%. Each MI455X accelerator carries 432GB of high-bandwidth memory, memory suppliers have warned AI-driven shortages could extend into 2027, and CFO Jean Hu has already flagged margin pressure from the Helios ramp.
“Helios” trades at 95%. The rack-scale system sits behind nearly every major AMD announcement this year.
Anthropic signed up in July for as much as 2 gigawatts of Helios capacity, alongside up to $5 billion of AMD investment in the Claude maker.
That stacked on top of 6-gigawatt agreements with OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), bringing AMD’s pipeline to 14 gigawatts before deployments from Microsoft and Oracle.
“Venice” sits at 94%. The Zen 6 server chip anchors the CPU side of Helios, and AMD guided server CPU revenue to grow more than 70% year over year in the quarter.
“MI450 / MI455X” trades at 92%. Helios racks pack 72 accelerators apiece, and AMD has pitched the generation as its Nvidia moment, comparing it to its 2021 "Milan moment," when its EPYC processors became a serious rival to Intel.
“ROCm” is at 89%. AMD says version 7 of its software stack delivers more than 3.5 times the inference performance and three times the training performance of its predecessor, a direct answer to the most common reason buyers historically defaulted to NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA).
“China” is at 81%. AMD took an $800 million charge when Washington blocked its China-specific MI308 chip, then agreed to remit 15% of revenue from licensed MI308 sales to resume shipping.
“OpenAI” trades at 74% and “Meta” at 65%. Both hold performance-based warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, roughly 10% of the company each, tied to purchases, AMD’s share price and other milestones. Meta’s agreement centers on inference, a word that itself trades at 91%.
What Kalshi Predicts AMD Will Skip
“TSMC” is at 50%. Venice is the first server CPU built on the 2-nanometer process from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM), but traders are split on whether Su names the foundry.
“Export Restriction / Export Control” sits at just 31%. Traders expect the China discussion without the phrase that cost AMD $800 million.
“Oracle” trades at 24%. Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) was the first announced public-cloud deployment of Helios, with an initial 50,000 MI450s scheduled to begin this quarter, yet traders strongly favor the customer going unnamed.
Reading the Board
The beat is priced in; the reaction is not. Options traders are pricing an 8.7% move in either direction, and AMD has closed lower the day after seven of its last 12 reports, including a 17% drop in February and an 18.6% surge in May.
The real test is whether AMD can convert its Helios pipeline into revenue without sacrificing margins.
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