The S&P 500 snapped a four-session winning streak on Wednesday as investors locked in profits from technology stocks, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to another record high. Despite the pullback, Polymarket traders continue to expect the benchmark index to rebound at Thursday’s open.
The S&P 500 fell 0.17% to close at 7,723.55, after opening at 7,771.62. The Aug. 6 Polymarket contract implied a 69% probability that the index will open higher on Thursday, although sentiment remained volatile throughout trading.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday’s modest decline interrupted a four-day winning streak for the S&P 500 after the benchmark had climbed to a fresh record high earlier in the session. The retreat came even as the Dow posted its fifth consecutive gain and another all-time closing high, highlighting the ongoing rotation beneath the market’s surface rather than broad-based weakness.
The latest Polymarket contract attracted roughly $50,500 in trading volume, a notable pickup from Tuesday’s relatively muted activity, suggesting traders became more engaged after the S&P 500 paused its record-setting rally.
The Bull Case
Investors continue to find support in resilient corporate earnings and easing geopolitical risks.
The Dow extended its record run after Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) gained more than 3%, helped by comments from Elon Musk that SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) plans to exclusively use Nvidia processors for its artificial intelligence infrastructure. Optimism has also been supported by hopes that negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could help keep oil prices contained after recent declines.
Markets will also be watching weekly jobless claims on Thursday ahead of Friday’s closely watched July nonfarm payrolls report, while another wave of earnings—including Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) before the open and Airbnb (NYSE:BNB) and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) after the close could shape expectations for the broader economy and corporate spending.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.08% early Thursday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The Aug. 5 Polymarket contract drew about $50,514 in trading volume after sentiment strengthened following the market’s record-setting run earlier this week. The S&P 500 opened at 7,771.62, above Tuesday’s close of 7,736.52, meaning the contract ultimately resolved “Up.”
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