Only eleven times since 2000 has Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:WDC) lost more than 15% of its value in a single session. Thursday is shaping up to be the twelfth.
Shares opened near $420, down 19% from Wednesday’s $519.17 close, according to Benzinga Pro data.
A close at that level would mark the stock’s worst day since March 2020. That comparison is where the story gets uncomfortable for bears.
Because what happened after each of those eleven days does not look like what usually follows a crash.
Why Did Western Digital Stock Tumble?
On Wednesday, the computer hardware maker reported financials for what CFO Kris Sennesael called “an outstanding year”:
- Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year and ahead of the $3.69 billion consensus.
- Adjusted earnings came in at $3.56 per share versus $3.29 expected, more than doubling from $1.70 a year ago.
- Non-GAAP gross margin reached 54.4%, expanding 1,310 basis points year-over-year. Operating margin hit 44.2%. Free cash flow was $1.28 billion, a 34% margin.
- For the full fiscal year, revenue rose 36% to $12.9 billion and free cash flow jumped 145% to $3.5 billion.
- Projected first-quarter revenue of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, with gross margin of 55% to 56% and adjusted EPS of $4.00. Both numbers technically cleared consensus. Neither cleared the bar the stock had already priced in.
CEO Irving Tan added that “as global data creation continues to accelerate, we enter fiscal year 2027 with continued confidence in the durability of demand.”
The market heard deceleration in the sequential rate of improvement — across revenue, margin and earnings — and sold anyway.
The Setup Nobody Priced For A Miss
Western Digital entered the report up roughly 219% year-to-date and more than 620% over twelve months. It closed at a record $729.00 on June 25 before shedding nearly 40% of that value ahead of earnings.
The 52-week range tells the story on its own: $73.14 to $799.87.
At that trajectory, an 8% EPS beat is not a catalyst. It is a maintenance payment.
The damage spread across the complex Thursday. SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) fell about 12% after guiding to $10.55 billion in revenue against $11.16 billion expected.
SK Hynix slid roughly 8%, and Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) dropped about 7%.
What Happened After Western Digital’s Biggest Crashes?
The historical record paints a surprisingly different picture.
| Date | Daily Move | Forward return 1-Month | 3-Month | 6-Month | 12-Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 28, 2000 | -16.05% | -41.18% | -3.06% | +5.88% | +4.00% |
| Jan. 29, 2000 | -17.65% | -28.57% | +17.71% | +28.57% | +26.29% |
| Dec. 4, 2000 | -32.08% | +44.44% | +68.89% | +94.22% | +110.22% |
| May 7, 2002 | -18.04% | +6.22% | +11.96% | +72.25% | +131.58% |
| July 22, 2002 | -20.92% | +72.26% | +103.87% | +130.32% | +281.29% |
| July 25, 2003 | -15.04% | -10.26% | +29.38% | +12.47% | -21.63% |
| Oct. 26, 2018 | -18.18% | +8.44% | -0.43% | +15.23% | +41.96% |
| Oct. 31, 2019 | -16.91% | -2.56% | +32.45% | -13.46% | -24.86% |
| March 16, 2020 | -20.44% | +23.47% | +33.66% | +16.58% | +109.71% |
| Aug. 6, 2020 | -16.12% | -2.28% | +6.73% | +66.54% | +84.34% |
| April 3, 2025 | -18.26% | +31.86% | +93.50% | +284.51% | +790.63% |
| Average | — | +9.26% | +35.88% | +64.83% | +139.41% |
| Median | — | +6.22% | +29.38% | +28.57% | +84.34% |
| Win Rate | — | 54.55% | 81.82% | 90.91% | 81.82% |
Eleven times in twenty-six years, this stock has fallen more than 15% in a day. The pattern becomes stronger as the holding period lengthens.
Only 54.55% of previous crashes produced positive returns one month later. That rises to 81.82% after three months and 90.91% after six months.
Twelve months later, Western Digital was positive 81.82% of the time, with a median return of 84.34% and an average return of 139%.
The most recent episode was extraordinary.
Western Digital plunged 18.26% on April 3, 2025, during the tariff shock. Twelve months later, shares had risen nearly 791%.
So is Thursday’s collapse a warning that Western Digital’s extraordinary AI-driven rally has broken — or is it creating another historically unusual buying opportunity?
Past performance obviously doesn’t guarantee another rebound and eleven observations also make this a very small sample.
But the data makes one point difficult to ignore: historically, investors who bought Western Digital’s most violent selloffs were rewarded far more often than punished over longer horizons.
Image: Shutterstock
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