Veteran investor Chris Camillo said SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) at roughly a $1.6 trillion valuation represents a "highly speculative game," arguing that investors already assume Elon Musk delivers on ambitious artificial-intelligence and space projects that may take years to prove.
Camillo Questions SpaceX’s Trillion-Dollar Market Valuation
Speaking in an episode on "The Iced Coffee Hour" that was published on Sunday, Camillo said institutions and wealthy investors had repeated opportunities to buy SpaceX privately at valuations of several hundred billion dollars before its public debut, while "virtually nothing has changed" enough to justify today’s multiple.
SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 a share, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. The company reported $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue and a $4.94 billion net loss, putting the offering above 90 times trailing sales. Reuters reported that some investors questioned the lofty multiple.
Camillo said he invested when SpaceX was worth about $30 billion because he believed its satellite business alone could eventually exceed that value. Today, however, "the numbers aren’t there" unless investors rely on theoretical businesses years into the future.
"For me, that’s a highly speculative game based on something that might or might never materialize," he said. Camillo acknowledged SpaceX has "distribution" and "a moat," but said investors are valuing it on "the best of all best case scenarios" and "pie in the sky goals."
Earnings Show Growth Alongside Heavy Spending
SpaceX’s first public earnings report showed both the strength and risk behind that argument. Second-quarter revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion, while Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million. Connectivity generated $1.66 billion in operating income, helping offset losses from Space and AI.
But capital expenditure topped $18 billion, including $15.83 billion for AI infrastructure, as SpaceX spends heavily on compute and Starship. Musk said the company expects a $100 billion revenue run rate by December.
Share Volatility Keeps Valuation Debate Alive
The market has wrestled with that tradeoff. Shares fell more than 50% from their June peak before recovering toward the IPO price this week. Investors including Gary Black have also questioned buying SpaceX’s dip, citing valuation and post-IPO share unlocks.
Camillo said even if SpaceX ultimately achieves its most ambitious targets, the valuation already assumes much of that success. "There’s no world in which SpaceX becomes an investment in my portfolio unless something radically changes," he said.
Benzinga Edge Rankings show SpaceX stock fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: SpaceX shares were up 4.65% to $139.30 during pre-market trading on Monday.
Image via Shutterstock
Login to comment