Gold miners are suddenly behaving like a forgotten corner of the market that investors have rediscovered overnight.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) is up 23.75% in August. That would be its best month since April 2020, when it gained 40% in the first wave of pandemic stimulus. The fund changed hands near $90 on Monday.
Two catalysts have recently strengthened the case for gold miners.
First, gold has climbed above $4,400 an ounce and is on track for a third consecutive week of gains. For miners, higher bullion prices can translate into stronger revenue and wider margins when production costs remain contained.
Second, crude oil — a meaningful input cost for miners — has remained broadly between $70 and $85 a barrel, well below the March peak near $120 that followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Diesel runs the trucks, the shovels and the generators at most mine sites, so cheaper crude holds down the cost of producing an ounce.
That matters because miners are benefiting from a favorable combination: higher gold prices on the revenue side and more manageable energy costs on the expense side.
The Market May Still Be Underpricing the Cash Flow
Imaru Casanova, portfolio manager for gold and precious metals at VanEck, said investors overstate the fuel risk in the first place. Energy is roughly 15% to 20% of all-in sustaining cost, the industry measure of what it takes to produce an ounce and keep a mine running.
Labor is the bigger line at 35% to 50%.
Casanova pointed to Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM) as the illustration. The largest gold producer in the world built its 2026 plan on $70 Brent, and estimates a $10 move in the barrel price shifts costs by about $60 million, or roughly $11 an ounce.
She also made the point that the two variables are linked. The instability keeping energy prices elevated is the same instability that sends investors into gold, so cost pressure and revenue support tend to arrive together.
VanEck estimates second-quarter all-in sustaining costs came in below $2,000 an ounce across the sector, leaving operating margins near the widest in the industry’s history.
Five individual miners are already up more than 30% this month through August 17.
Aura Minerals Inc. (NYSE:AUGO) has jumped 43.56%, followed by Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (NYSE:AYA) at 34.42%, Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) at 33.25%, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) at 30.23% and Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE:CDE) at 30.15%.
If gold remains near current levels, miners may not need another record price to keep generating exceptional margins. They simply need the market to start believing those margins are sustainable.
Photo: Parilov/Shutterstock
Login to comment