The scarcest input in the AI buildout may not be silicon. It is a metal that takes about a decade to pull out of the ground, and the industry has spent fifteen years not building enough of it.
The infrastructure needed to support the AI growth requires huge amounts of raw materials, putting copper at the center of the mining industry’s next investment cycle.
That shift is already visible in the earnings of the world’s largest miners. In a note shared Wednesday, Bank of America said copper has become the industry’s "new center of gravity.”
Why The AI Trade Runs On Copper
Copper is the metal that carries electricity through a data center, from the power grid to the servers.
It runs through the cabling inside racks, busbars, transformers and substations, then through the transmission lines connecting massive campuses to grids that were never built for this level of demand.
Add electric vehicles, aging grids that need replacing and new power-generation capacity, and the demand for copper keeps rising. And unlike AI spending, that demand does not depend entirely on the economic cycle.
Prices have followed. Copper futures traded near $6.50 a pound Tuesday, up roughly 45% over the past year.
Supply has not kept up with demand. BofA models copper deficits in both 2026 and 2027, and lifts its house forecast from $12,889 a metric ton to $15,251, or from $5.85 a pound to $6.92.
Copper Is Taking Over The Mining Story
The change is striking.
At BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP), copper now accounts for more than half of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.)
Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:RIO) is increasingly tilted toward copper and aluminum, while Glencore Plc (OTC:GLNCY), Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) and Antofagasta plc (OTC:ANFGF) offer more direct copper exposure.
BofA analyst Jason Fairclough said the debate has moved beyond whether large miners need more copper.
"The key question is: Who can grow in copper at acceptable capital intensity and execution risk?"
That distinction matters. Copper demand can rise sharply, but shareholders only benefit if miners can increase production without allowing construction costs, operating expenses and delays to consume the upside.
And the industry is already preparing for a new wave of investment.
The Four Miners BofA Rates Buy
The bank maintains Buy ratings on Glencore, Freeport-McMoRan, Antofagasta and South32 Ltd.
It rates BHP, Rio Tinto and Anglo American plc (OTC:NGLOY) Neutral, while Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE:SCCO) and Fortescue Ltd. (OTC:FSUMF) receive Underperform ratings.
Freeport is the cleanest US-listed way in.
Second-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.74 a share beat three separate consensus estimates, and the company improved 2026 unit cost guidance to $1.90 a pound from $1.95.
BofA’s price objective is $80, against Tuesday’s close of $66.32, implying about 21% upside.
Glencore stands out because its copper growth options are arriving alongside additional shareholder returns.
Its first-half results beat expectations, while the company announced a $1 billion dividend top-up and a $500 million buyback. It also expects the restart of the Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina to begin in the second half of 2027, earlier than previously expected.
Antofagasta remains a copper pure play, although it recently reduced its 2026 production guidance because of weather impacts in Chile.
South32 gives investors a broader exposure to future-facing base metals while still benefiting from the industry’s shift toward copper and other strategic materials.
Copper Growth Is Getting Expensive
One reason investors should not treat this as a simple copper shortage story is that mining costs are rising.
BofA says currency, fuel and acid costs are creating pressure, although the impact has so far been less severe than feared.
Higher prices for gold, silver and molybdenum have helped offset some costs for miners producing these metals alongside copper.
Glencore is a warning sign. The company raised its copper cost guidance by about 20%, largely because of higher diesel and acid costs in its African operations. That makes capital discipline crucial.
The next phase of the AI trade may therefore run through a less obvious part of the supply chain. The winners may not simply be the miners with the most copper, but those capable of turning copper scarcity into profitable production growth.
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