Cryptocurrency traders are pricing in higher odds that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will hold through October, even as lead mediator Qatar works to restart diplomacy between the two sides.
‘Return to the Path of Negotiations’
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani is set to visit Tehran on Thursday to discuss the ongoing mediation efforts and other regional issues, Reuters reported.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on X that the Middle Eastern country is undertaking efforts “to encourage a return to the path of negotiations” between the U.S. and Iran.
The spokesperson said Qatar’s priority is “to restore normal navigation” in the Strait of Hormuz, ensure global energy and food security and maintain the safety of supply chains.
No Diplomatic Breakthrough in Sight
The U.S. has accused Tehran of violating the memorandum of understanding by attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Washington also reimposed the naval blockade against Iranian ports.
Although the fighting has ceased for nearly a month, the U.S. has turned to economic sanctions to pressure Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new campaign earlier this week targeting the financial networks, companies and countries that help Iran generate revenue and bypass sanctions.
Iran has termed the sanctions as “systemic bullying” accusing the U.S. of “annihilating” international law.
Polymarket Bets on Ceasefire
Meanwhile, the betting crowd on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns a 90% chance of the ceasefire continuing through Sept. 15, up from 48% a month ago.
Similarly, the odds that the ceasefire holds through Sept. 30 rose to 83%, while the chance it lasts through Oct. 30 climbed to 75%
Image via Shutterstock/ Below the Sky
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