Investors are asking the wrong question about the company’s landmark Google agreement, according to Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy.
Analysts spent much of Thursday’s earnings call trying to quantify how much revenue Google’s newly disclosed commercial agreement could generate. Murphy’s answer wasn’t a number. Instead, it was a signal: Wall Street’s existing models may already be too low.
“If you took the full performance and the full opportunity, then you’re right. It’s just a monster number.”
The remark captured what may have been the call’s biggest takeaway—not that Alphabet Inc‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google represents another large AI customer, but that Marvell believes the agreement materially expands the company’s long-term earnings power.
Marvell Says Google’s AI Opportunity Extends Well Beyond Current Forecasts
The discussion began after analysts noted that Google’s agreement, which carries the potential for up to $120 billion in cumulative revenue over six-and-a-half years if performance milestones are achieved, implies roughly $18 billion in annual revenue at peak.
Murphy didn’t challenge the arithmetic.
“When you look at the scale of this, your math is not wrong.”
Instead, he cautioned that the timing matters. Management said much of the revenue expected next year is already reflected in guidance, as several programs are underway. The larger acceleration, Murphy said, comes later.
“The big impact would be in ’29 and beyond.”
That distinction matters because it shifts the conversation away from next year’s earnings and toward Marvell’s longer-term AI revenue trajectory.
Marvell’s Google Deal Is Bigger Than One AI Chip Program
Murphy also pushed back on the idea that investors should view the agreement as a single custom silicon win.
According to management, the Google relationship spans inference accelerators, networking interface cards (NICs), storage controllers, memory interface controllers, near-memory compute and the company’s XPU attach portfolio.
“It’s a number of products and product lines,” Murphy said, describing the engagement as “very broad-based.”
That breadth helps explain why Murphy repeatedly suggested analysts may still be underestimating the opportunity.
“Beyond whatever you’ve modeled previously… custom numbers definitely go higher.”
He went even further, saying Marvell’s custom AI business would become “a lot larger than anybody’s been modeling so far.”
While Murphy declined to provide updated long-term revenue targets ahead of Marvell’s Investor Day, he indicated the company plans to present a more detailed roadmap extending through the end of the decade.
What Investors Should Watch Next
The immediate story isn’t whether Google’s agreement eventually reaches its maximum revenue potential—management deliberately avoided making that prediction.
The more important signal is that Marvell is framing the deal as evidence that its position in AI infrastructure has expanded beyond what current consensus models reflect.
Investors will now be looking to the company’s upcoming Investor Day, where management has promised to quantify that opportunity and explain how Google’s agreement fits into Marvell’s broader AI growth strategy.
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