Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) could draw $15.5 billion in passive buying this month as a Nasdaq-100 rebalance could force index funds to increase their holdings.
JPMorgan estimates SpaceX’s weight in the index could jump from 1.25% to 2.25%, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. The changes are set to take effect before the Sept. 21 open, with passive funds expected to adjust their holdings at the Sept. 18 close.
The potential buying wave comes after SpaceX shares climbed above their $135 IPO price, despite concerns that post-listing lockup expirations would unleash a wave of selling.
Why Billions Could Flow Into SpaceX
SpaceX is already the seventh-largest company in the Nasdaq-100 by market value, yet its 1.25% weighting puts it only 19th in the index.
That gap reflects the unusually small amount of SpaceX stock available to trade after its June IPO. Nasdaq limits the weight of companies with a low public float, so much of SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation has not yet been reflected in the index.
That gap should narrow as post-IPO lockups expire. About 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading on Aug. 6, followed by another 319 million on Aug. 20, with both releases falling before Nasdaq’s Aug. 31 reference date for the September rebalance.
That matters because roughly $1.7 trillion of exposure is linked to the Nasdaq-100, meaning even a relatively small adjustment can force index-tracking funds to buy billions of dollars of stock.
JPMorgan estimates a 2.25% weighting would generate about $15.5 billion of net buying from passive funds and ETFs such as the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ).
TD Securities sees scope for an even larger adjustment, projecting SpaceX’s weight could climb above 3.5%.
Forced Buying Does Not Mean a Guaranteed Rally
When the company joined the Nasdaq-100 in July, JPMorgan estimated the move would generate about $4.3 billion of passive buying, yet the stock fell more than 6% on its first day in the index.
Part of that demand can arrive early as traders position ahead of known index changes and later sell into passive funds. SpaceX will also face more potential supply, with more than 1 billion additional shares becoming eligible for trading by the end of October and roughly 1.3 billion more after third-quarter earnings, according to Bloomberg.
Prediction Traders Are Divided
With SpaceX currently worth just over $2 trillion, prediction traders are divided on where its valuation will end September.
On Polymarket’s market for SpaceX’s month-end valuation, the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion range currently leads at 29%, narrowly ahead of $2.25 trillion or more at 28%. The $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion range sits at 24%.
September’s rebalance may also be only the first of several index-driven catalysts. When Nasdaq introduced its new methodology, it said low-float companies could effectively be added to the index “in multiple tranches over time” as more shares become available to trade.
With billions more SpaceX shares still due to come out of lockup, later rebalances could lift its index weighting again and trigger further passive buying.
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