"The Big Short" investor Steve Eisman says he owns American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG), as Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ryan Tunis backed the insurer as a cheap "self-help story."

Eisman brought Tunis, Cantor’s property-and-casualty insurance analyst, onto his podcast for a discussion on the sector.

The talk turned to which commercial insurers still look attractive as industry pricing begins to weaken. AIG emerged as one of Tunis’ preferred names.

"Full disclosure everybody, I own AIG," Eisman said. In his post-interview recap, Eisman said Tunis liked AIG because it was a "self-help story" and "the stock is really, really cheap."

Why Tunis Likes AIG

"You’re being compensated quite a bit on the fact that, one, it’s cheap," Tunis said.

AIG’s book value stood at $77.39 per share at the end of June, slightly above Friday’s $76.21 share price, supporting Tunis’ argument that the stock trades cheaply relative to its balance sheet.

The insurer also reported $686 million in second-quarter underwriting income, up 10% from a year earlier.

But Tunis’ case goes beyond valuation. He pointed to years of restructuring that have simplified AIG and improved its underwriting operation.

"It’s as simple as it’s been," Tunis said, describing AIG as essentially a pure-play property-and-casualty insurer.

He said further gains could come from expense savings and reinsurance efficiencies, giving the company ways to improve results even if industry pricing becomes less favorable.

Tunis Says AIG Faces a Tougher Insurance Market

The bullish call comes with a clear risk: Tunis expects conditions across commercial insurance to weaken.

The industry is emerging from an unusually long seven-year "hard market," when insurers had strong pricing power, and is now "seeing softening," Tunis said.

A soft market means more insurers competing for the same business, which can push premiums lower and squeeze profit margins.

"The business mix is not the right type of business mix for a soft market," Tunis said of AIG.

Tunis said AIG leans heavily on large corporate accounts, where competitors can more easily chase business on price. He contrasted that with Travelers, which has more small and midsized commercial customers tied to long-standing agent relationships.

Polymarket Traders See Low Odds of Category 5 Landfall

Catastrophe losses remain another major risk for property-and-casualty insurers. AIG recorded $210 million in catastrophe-related charges during the second quarter.

Polymarket traders currently assign about a 7% chance that a Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the contiguous U.S. before year-end, with roughly $142,000 traded on the market.

Category 5 is the highest hurricane classification, with sustained winds of at least 157 mph and the potential to cause catastrophic property damage and large insurance losses.

Cantor upgraded AIG from Neutral to Overweight in July, raising its price target from $85 to $92. Tunis maintained the Overweight rating in August while trimming the target to $90, implying about 18% upside from Friday’s $76.21 close.

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