Anticipation is building among tech enthusiasts for Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) "Surprise and Shine" event scheduled for Wednesday, with prediction markets wagering on the expected announcements.
What to Expect at Apple Event
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns a 99% chance that the standard iPhone 18 Pro will launch at a price above $1,000 and a 96% probability that it will exceed $1,150.
This bet will settle using the pre‑tax launch price of the base iPhone 18 Pro, as shown on Apple’s official U.S. store on its first day of sale.
For context, the base iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 in the U.S. for the 256GB model, while the iPhone 17 Pro Max starts at $1,199.
Apple’s First Foldable iPhone
There’s near-universal agreement that the tech giant will launch its first foldable smartphone at the event, with 99% of the betting crowd in favor.
Wagers on the launch price were mixed. The market assigned a 95% chance that the foldable iPhone would launch above $1,800 and an 89% chance that it would debut over $2,000.
A New Era of iPhones?
Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan said investors should focus on three items: Apple’s first foldable iPhone, price hikes across the Pro lineup and the decision to move the cheaper models to next spring.
The foldable iPhone, reportedly dubbed the iPhone Ultra, could become the most expensive iPhone Apple has ever sold. Media reports put the starting price around $2,000 to $2,500, with higher-storage versions potentially approaching or exceeding $3,000.
The highly anticipated event kicks off on Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET. It is the first iPhone launch that John Ternus will run as chief executive.
Price Action: Apple shares fell 0.04% in after-hours trading. The stock closed 1.17% lower at $316.22 during Tuesday’s regular trading session, according to Benzinga Pro.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that AAPL exhibits solid price trends in the short, medium, and long term.
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