Apple Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have a strange habit around iPhone launches: they tend to slip on the day of the big reveal, only to bounce back and finish higher the very next session, a pattern that has held for almost two decades.
Same-Day Weakness, Next-Day Strength
Across 24 iPhone launches tracked since 2007, Apple has averaged a 0.3% decline on launch day, with a median decline of 0.6%, according to data compiled by Bluekurtic Market Insights.
The next trading day tells a different story; Apple has averaged a 0.5% gain, positive in 15 of 24 releases.
The broader market shows an even stronger pattern than Apple, with the S&P 500 closing higher the day after an iPhone launch 79.2% of the time and the Nasdaq 100 75% of the time.
A New CEO’s First Big Test
Apple opens its “Surprise and Shine” event Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, the first iPhone launch under new CEO John Ternus.
Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan expects three new phones, including Apple’s first foldable iPhone, alongside price increases of $150 to $200 across the Pro line, driven by rising memory and storage costs.
Mohan said this year’s reaction will hinge on how far prices actually move, Siri AI adoption, and management commentary on foldable demand.
KeyBanc Sees a Smaller Cycle
KeyBanc Capital Markets expects total iPhone 18 builds of roughly 80 million units through early fiscal 2027, down from about 91 million a year earlier, largely because there is no base iPhone 18 model, according to a research note seen by Investing.com.
It expects higher pricing and a richer product mix to partly offset the lower volumes.
Where Wall Street Stands
BofA maintained its Buy rating and $380 price target, implying 18.8% upside, while KeyBanc maintained an Underweight rating and a $250 price target, warning Apple faces a difficult tradeoff, raising prices broadly risks “sticker shock” and weaker unit volumes, while more selective increases could invite scrutiny over margins and further hikes later.
Apple carries a consensus Buy rating from 29 analysts and an average price target of $335, roughly 5.4% above the current price, according to Benzinga Analyst Ratings.
iPhone Revenue Heading Into the Launch
Apple’s iPhone segment generated $54.25 billion in revenue in its fiscal third quarter, up nearly 22% from a year earlier, accounting for roughly half of the company’s $109.4 billion in total net sales.
CFO Kevan Parekh told analysts in July that the company expects total revenue to grow 9% to 11% year-over-year in the September quarter, though iPhone growth is expected to slow to the “mid-teens” due to foreign exchange headwinds and supply constraints.
Price Action: Shares closed 1.17% lower on Tuesday at $316.22 and gained 0.04% in extended trading.
The stock has climbed 16.68% year to date and 34.93% over the past year.
Benzinga edge rankings indicate Apple’s stock has a Momentum score in the 79th percentile and a Growth score in the 40th percentile.
See More: Top Momentum Stocks
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo Courtesy: sdx15 on Shutterstock.com
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