Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) released second-quarter financial results and hosted an earnings call on Friday. Read the complete transcript below.
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Summary
Anglogold Ashanti reported strong financial performance in Q2 2026, with EBITDA rising 46% to $2 billion and headline earnings increasing by 58% to $1 billion.
The company declared nearly $1 billion in dividends for the first half of 2026, reflecting robust cash flow generation.
Despite macroeconomic pressures raising costs, the company's disciplined cost management ensured financial metrics outperformed industry standards.
Anglogold Ashanti's liquidity remains strong with $4.2 billion, including a net cash position of nearly $1 billion, compared to a net debt position of $311 million a year ago.
The company plans strategic investments in high-return projects within its existing portfolio, particularly in Nevada, aiming for significant production growth by the early 2030s.
Operational highlights include strong performance from tier 1 assets, contributing over 70% of production with a 71% cash margin.
Management emphasized a focus on disciplined capital allocation, maintaining its dividend policy, and launching a $2 billion share buyback program.
Future outlook remains positive with anticipated growth in production and cash flow, supported by ongoing cost containment efforts and high gold prices.
Full Transcript
Judith, Operator
Good afternoon. Welcome to the Anglogold Ashanti Q2 2026 earnings release. All participants are in a listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you require operator assistance during the conference, please key in star then zero on your telephone keypad. Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand you over to Mr. Stuart Bailey. Please go ahead.
Stuart Bailey
Thanks very much, Judith. Good afternoon. Good morning to everyone, depending on where you are, and welcome to our results for the second quarter and the first half of 2026. Alberto and Gillian will be presenting, but members of the executive team are available for any questions you might have. As always, we have a safe harbor statement at the front of the presentation which has important information regarding forward-looking statements, and we would encourage you to read that.
I'll hand over to Alberto.
Alberto
Thank you, Stuart. I will start with safety. You will remember from our Q1 presentation that we had a tragic fatality at Obuasi on April 24. We suspended operations for two weeks to undertake a thorough investigation into the incident and we are taking the necessary and important steps to prevent a recurrence. This kind of event validates the effort and resources that we spend every day to improve our safety performance. We do remain proud of the enormous strides we have made over the past five years.
As you can see. Before we go into the quarter, let's take a step back and look at the first half, which really how were we doing after half a year? Production after stripping out the sale of Cerro Grande was more or less stable year on year at around 1 1/2 million ounces. We had an exemplary cost performance again, managing controllable cost slightly lower in real terms, that is if you strip away inflation, oil price, royalties, exchange rate, which is what we can control, we once more are below that level of controllables.
Once again you see strong growth in EBITDA and earnings. Comparisons are not usually nice, but probably we have the best EBITDA growth year on year of all of the large gold companies, comfortably outstripping the rise in the gold price. Along with a more than doubling in cash flows, we made sure that shareholders both see the full benefit and see it right away. With just under a billion dollars in dividends declared over six months, it's been an extraordinary period by any measure.
As we look to Q2, there was a production impact from both Cerro Grande sale and the temporary safety suspension at Obuasi. On the positive side of the ledger, we had standout performances at Tropicana and Cuyaba. Total cash cost to the group were 1,480 per ounce. Once again, as with the half year, the macro context is critical. As I mentioned before, royalties, fuel, broad inflation, FX basically accounted for all of the increase. While this impact is driving cost inflation across the industry, our underlying operational discipline is firmly intact.
And that discipline is why our financial metrics are so strong. We've ensured that earnings and cash flow grow well ahead of the gold price. EBITDA was up 46% to 2 billion. Headline earnings were 58% better at 1 billion. You can see our cash flows remain robust. Cash generated from operations grew 49% to 1.8 billion. As we expected, cash taxes more than doubled year over year to 542 million. This reflects not only our improved profitability, but also the timing of payments across our operating jurisdictions.
Importantly, it is a seasonal peak. As we start reading the analyst reports, I think that that's probably something that needs to be adjusted because, for example, we do expect cash taxes to fall to less than half of that 542 million to about 230 to 250 in each of Q3 and Q4. So that points to an even stronger cash conversion over the remainder of the year. We continue to transform the balance sheet. Liquidity is ample at 4.2 billion, underpinned by a net cash position of nearly $1 billion.
To put that in perspective, we had a net debt position of 311 million just 12 months ago. This allows us to comfortably invest in our growth pipeline while ensuring our shareholders benefit from strong cash returns. This is an interesting graph and we could make this one since 2021, but right now you're seeing since H1 of 2024. As we look at the broader industry landscape, it's clear that external market-driven factors have fundamentally reshaped cost profiles across the industry.
Every operator is navigating the same intense macroeconomic pressures, persistent inflation, fuel spikes and the impact of higher gold-price-linked royalties. Our approach is not to passively accept them. We are relentlessly focused on executing what we can control. This chart provides important historical context of our cost performance. The gray bars represent our normalized cost, that is what our total cost would be if we simply accepted market inflation and royalty hikes and nothing else changed.
However, through active mitigation strategies implemented across our portfolio, we have managed to partially offset these macro factors. This is reflected in the orange parts which represents the total cash cost we actually reported, proving our ability to consistently outperform these macro-inflated baselines. Through rigorous operational discipline and our full asset potential program, we have successfully compensated not only for the increase due to these external factors, but also for normal changes in grade and mining further from infrastructure that is inevitable.
Ultimately, by decoupling our controllable operating costs from these escalating market headwinds, we ensure that the full benefit of record gold prices flows directly to the bottom line, maximizing free cash flow and driving our sector-leading yields. Our T1 assets are the core growth and cash engine of the group, accounting for over 70% of total production at an exceptional 71% cash margin. These assets hold approximately 80% of our mineral reserves, underscoring the structural long-term quality of our global portfolio.
Our tier 2 assets continue to serve as reliable cash generators, delivering a solid 58% margin with ongoing focus on operational discipline and cost competitiveness. This combined asset structure provides superior cash flow leverage to the higher gold price environment while maintaining the quality foundation needed to keep us firmly on track for full year guidance. The high-quality portfolio we just walked through is not static. We are fortunate to have an emerging slate of low-risk, capital-efficient and potentially very high-return brownfield and greenfield opportunities.
These projects underscore what I've said repeatedly: while we always scan the landscape for value-adding M&A, the best opportunities for us lie within our portfolio. Nevada is anticipated to become a significant production center for the company in the early 2030s. We're advancing to full feasibility study at Arthur, but even at our existing operation we have options with the potential to add between 10% to 15% to our current production profile in the next three years, all from our existing operations.
There are various opportunities identified through leveraging our established strategic asset review and option analysis processes. Key operational focus areas include additional ore sources and processing plant expansions aimed at sustainably improvement on current production bottlenecks at Cuyaba, Gaeta, Siguiri, Obuasi and Sukati. We are currently advancing high-value exploration opportunities, priority studies and project implementations all along the pipeline with a new, more agile fast-track project framework.
I will give a detailed update of these growth projects in Q3. This is what disciplined capital allocation looks like: taking part of our record free cash flow and reinvesting in its low-risk, high-return opportunities that will optimize the value we can deliver from our world-class ore bodies. We are pre-funding the health and expansion of these assets today, ensuring they remain highly profitable cash generators well into the next decade. On dividends, it is worth having a quick reminder of our dividend policy.
It provides for quarterly payout of 12.5 cents a share. It also provides for an annual true-up payment bringing the payout to 50% of free cash flow. We again used discretion to make that true-up at the half year, underlining not only the extraordinary cash flow generation, but also our confidence in the outlook of the business. That takes our dividend declaration for the half year to 949 million, with 364 million declared in Q2. This remains one of the most generous yields in the sector.
And, as normal, we expect a strong second half. When you look at our overall capital allocation framework, you will see it working precisely as intended. Our portfolio is well capitalized and is performing consistently to plan. Our balance sheet is the strongest it's ever been. We're delivering sector-leading returns with one of the industry's most attractive yields. We've shown an investor-forward approach with more frequent dividend payments. In April, we executed a buyback of our outstanding bonds, retiring 666 million of our 28 and 30 notes.
That's another reduction in our longer-term financing risk and a clear improvement in our strategic flexibility. That positions us, willing to deploy excess liquidity into a 2 billion open market share buyback program. Shareholders approved the program last week and we're now waiting approval from the South African Reserve Bank. Again, if you step back, this is a business with a predictable operating base and unrivaled project pipeline and a balance sheet that will stand us in good stead in whatever market we encounter.
With that I hand over to Gillian.
Julia
Thank you, Alberto. We generated free cash flow of $727 million in Q2, a 36% increase over the 535 million reported in Q2 of last year. This was underpinned by a 41% year-on-year increase in net cash flow from operating activities to 1.4 billion, driven by disciplined cost execution and a 35% higher average gold price received. The upward pressure on costs for our industry were particularly acute this quarter. US CPI escalated to 3.5% in June of 2026 from 2.7% 12 months earlier.
The primary driver was the 45% increase in Brent crude prices, which led to a spike in our energy inputs. Australia was the clearest example, with inflation more than doubling to 4%, putting pressure on local labour and consumables. US dollar weakness was matched by appreciation of our local currencies, creating strong cost headwinds. This currency-driven inflation is receiving aggressive focus on internal cost containment measures. Our internal realized inflation rate, which represents CPI changes in the jurisdictions that we operate, is currently just under 6%.
We're working to offset those cost pressures with our Full Asset Potential program and by adopting a total cost of ownership supply chain framework, ensuring disciplined capital allocation by optimizing long-term asset performance. In our financials, the results show a significant rise in earnings and free cash flow. The increase in free cash flow is underpinned by higher realized price and improved cash receipts from Kibali. EBITDA rose 46% to $2 billion.
Basic earnings per share rose 49% year-on-year to 197 cents, up from 132 cents in Q2 of last year. As a result of the strong performance, we ended the quarter with net cash of 991 million, a $1.3 billion swing from June in the prior year. Total cash costs increased by 21% year-on-year to $1,480 per ounce, compared to $1,226 per ounce in Q2 of 2025. We've been very clear on those exogenous factors driving the increase. Inflation, higher gold price–linked royalties and exchange rates collectively added around $216 per ounce, or 18%, to the cost base.
The higher gold price meant higher revenue-linked royalty costs, while the 45% increase in oil price drove up our fuel costs across the portfolio. The suspension at Obuasi accounted for another $38 an ounce. In our managed operations, we saw the benefit of our Full Asset Potential programs, specifically our plant feed expansion program at Cuiaba. Total cash costs for our managed operations increased by 20% to $1,486. Even through Full Asset Potential and other operational improvement initiatives, we continue to look for opportunities to improve efficiencies and protect our margins.
On free cash flow, the higher price added 733 million, offset by low sales volumes which reduced it by 151 million. Increases in operating costs were largely driven by higher royalties, inflationary pressure and the weaker US dollar, partly offset by higher by-product revenues and lower costs related to legacy tailings facilities. It's important to note that earnings-related tax payments in Q2 2026 were the highest on record and are expected to be by some way the highest for this year.
Capital spend stepped up as planned, while distributions to our non-controlling interests were £85 million year-on-year. We are pleased to again reaffirm annual guidance based on our stated assumptions, which underscores the robustness of our portfolio and the improving operational performance into the second half. We do expect a second-half-weighted production profile, particularly in Q4. Production is expected to reduce slightly at Tropicana as open pit mining moves into the lower grade Havana 6 pit, and at Iduapriem due to difficulty accessing temporarily flooded higher grade areas.
Obuasi is running at a normalized run rate with half two production expected to be 150,000 ounces. We are keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East to mitigate any impacts on our energy and global supply chains. With that, I'll pass back to Alberto to outline our relative market performance.
Alberto
Thank you, Julia. We've not changed our focus. 2026 is about disciplined execution and controlling what we can control, like we have done in the past five years. In a strong gold environment, discipline matters more, not less. Our aim is simple: protect margins, allocate capital, rigorously strengthen the portfolio. We remain laser-focused on cost discipline across the portfolio for Full Asset Potential. We are systematically looking for ways to offset external pressures across the board.
We're increasing the production contribution from our tier one assets, which structurally lowers our cost base and improves margin resilience. Active portfolio management remains core. We've been active in this area and will continue to direct capital to assets that generate superior risk-adjusted returns. Sustaining capital is about protecting safety and reliability as well as asset longevity and growth. We are appropriately capitalizing our assets to ensure safe, stable and sustainable operations.
We continue to invest in mineral reserve development to increase operational flexibility, particularly in complex ore bodies. Reserve replacement remains fundamental. Sustained reserve growth underpins long-term value creation. Growth capital is focused on high-quality, long-life projects, particularly in Nevada. These projects enhance jurisdictional quality and portfolio resilience. We are creating flexibility for life extension and brownfield growth across the portfolio by building new tailings and opening land to extend our mining operations.
We are prioritizing short-cycle, high-return organic projects that strengthen free cash flow generation. Operational excellence alone is not enough. Social and regulatory stability are equally critical. We remain deeply committed to our host communities and governments, where we're providing real-time benefit from the higher gold price through taxes, royalty, social investment and meaningful participation in our value chain. We've made steady progress narrowing the rating gap relative to our North American peers through a comprehensive multi-year plan to strengthen the business.
Today, our fundamentals are robust. Our portfolio is performing, and the higher gold price is flowing directly to the bottom line. This slide clearly illustrates our relative outperformance. The transparent bubbles represent where we and our peers sat exactly one year ago, while the solid bubbles show our position today over the last 12 months. You can see a sector-wide derating for Anglogold Ashanti over the past year. As you can see in the chart, we moved to higher dividend yield and a slightly higher EV to EBITDA multiple.
All of our competitors saw the opposite. That is no accident. For us, the market performance has followed our results. In fact, in Q2, we generated a sector-leading 36% year-over-year growth in free cash flow per share, outpacing the peer group. In the end, that is what matters. We're close to the bottom line, to free cash flow. While some peers have built significant net cash positions or capital allocation issues, we pass this strong cash generation directly to shareholders at these elevated gold prices.
As these elevated gold prices hold, we are focused on realizing our operational catalysts, managing cost aggressively and delivering on our buyback program. With that clear focus, we believe Anglogold Ashanti represents the most compelling investment proposition in the sector today, with significant embedded upside. With that, I will hand over to the operator for your questions.
Judith, Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting the question-and-answer session. For the benefit of the participants who have joined via the webcast, you are welcome to submit your questions in the question box provided on your screen. For the benefit of the participants who have joined via the telephone lines, to ask a question, please press star and then one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that you are in the question queue.
You may press star and then two to leave the question queue. Our first question comes from Josh Wolfson of RBC. Please go ahead.
Josh Wolfson, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
Thank you very much, Alberto. We had a lot of questions on the last call on the buyback announcement. Many of the details couldn't be disclosed. With this now approved, can you provide me a bit more information on, you know, how the company's looking to leverage this? You know, is it going to be opportunistic purchases, more stable? And what are your thoughts on executing the full program, you know, all things equal?
Alberto
Thank you. Thank you, Josh. We still, as I mentioned, haven't had the authorization from the Reserve Bank of South Africa. And I can tell you at this stage it's going to be more opportunistic. There's going to be probably at some point the minimal buying, but it's going to be skewed more towards the downside and to illiquidity more than anything else. But yeah, we're still waiting for the Reserve Bank and then we wait, we see.
Josh Wolfson, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
Got it. Thank you. And then, you know, on our end, we're very excited about this upcoming organic growth update. The company's issued some details at least at gates. We kind of know the outlook for Obuasi. You know, when we think about the other assets that were identified, Siguiri, Cuiaba and Siguiri, you know, is there any more information you can provide, maybe early expectations there, and also, you know, what should we be thinking about the capital needs for some of these opportunities?
Alberto
Thank you, Josh. Look, I'm sort of resisted because I want to give what I've said sort of the next quarter is going to be, I would imagine, with, I know, a significant detail per asset of what we expect to see in three years and probably before that. But obviously we've continued to work. There's a whole team, let's say, that has been assembled in the corporate with an SVP that's equivalent to the head of Africa. So it's a pretty senior position, and in that group you have planning people, you have supply people, you have finance, you have HR people, you have projects people.
And so they're looking at each one of these. The cost is not high. Probably it's where we have the processing plant in Geita there's going to be a bit more cost, but in Siguiri it's basically equipment, trucks and shovels and things like that, and exploration. In Cuiaba it's going to be, we will be looking for bringing ore from other places, but it's pure mining. And Cuiaba, yeah, we'll see if it's between maybe 75 or something in three years that we're looking for.
And Siguiri, it's again pure mining. We've identified areas. We again need to do a bit more brownfield, but the initial estimates sort of solidify, strengthen our view that this is going to be just more of mining open pit. There's not issues. We need to do some issues of license to operate with resettlements, but nothing that we will see is going to be an issue within the next three years. So look, what I can tell you right now, we've given a guidance between, of 2025 baseline, so about 3 million ounces, and between 300 and 450,000 ounces.
And the more we see, I think that we're going to be in that range and what we will be talking in Q3. So low capex, interestingly enough, and this is important, what you see in the growth capex and sustaining capex right now in this quarter is already contemplating the money to achieve that growth. For example, you will see in the growth capital 120 million, from memory, for TSFs in Obuasi and TSFs in Siguiri, from memory. So those two are needed as we grow The answers you are also seeing money on sustaining for stripping, money on sustaining for ore. And that is all preparing the terrain. So we've started to spend within apparently normal course of business, but it's within this laying the groundwork to materialize these growth projects. And again, it's not that we're going to only see the growth in three years. We should start seeing some of the growth. So we expect growth if this is a transition year.
If I look at 2026, it will be sort of flat versus 2025. We expect to see growth in 2027, growth in 2028, and then bigger growth in 2029.
UNKNOWN Analyst
Okay, very much looking forward to that. If I can sort of tuck in maybe one more question: you issued a detailed exploration update also this morning. Lots of incremental pieces of insight, specifically for Arthur where I guess we're focused on some of the upside there. Is there anything you can point to? It looks like there's a lot of drilling that's been completed there. How should we be thinking about some of those opportunities and what that means for that project?
Alberto
Thank you. We are. Maybe I'll ask Marcelo Godoy just to help me out here, or if he wants Nick, tell me Marcelo. But look, we continue to advance. We had a board yesterday. We've given significant more resources to finish this feasibility study. We are concentrated on that to have it, I think, next year sometime. And everything we see gives us more and more confidence that this is going to be the defining asset for Anglogold Ashanti in the next decade.
The progress in Aspen, North Bullfrog. We expect record of decision by the end of this year. But Marcelo Godoy, you're somewhere else, but do you want to add something versus the question please?
Marcelo Godoy, Chief Technology Officer
Sure, Robert. We have finished major drilling campaign at Arthur and we are aiming to increase the reserves. Our target is 1 million plus ounces for this year. And now, with the approval of the feasibility approval from the board, we have the funds to start the feasibility study now in August. So that's where we've been focusing on. Everything else is working according to plan. Thank you.
UNKNOWN Analyst
Great. Thank you very much.
Judith, Operator
The next question comes from Adrian Hammond of SPG. Please go ahead.
Adrian Hammond, Analyst
Thanks, Alberto. Hi Alberto and Gillian. Firstly, just talk about capital allocation if you may. Your target for 1 billion cash buffer is largely achieved. So does this assume then you pay out all future free cash flows, or are you going to build further cash buffers here in light of your growth aspirations?
Alberto
Thanks, Adrian. No, the plan is to find a way to return that cash. At this stage, our plan is to build that 1 billion. And so as I look at it, it all depends on the gold price. But if you believe that the gold price is staying where it is, we should double the free cash flows, and then you can just remember, let's say it's 3.8 billion and we already—so that's 1.9 we're returning of dividends. And then on the other 1.9 we use 666, let's go close to 700 for the repurchase.
So you can see that if we keep 1 billion there's going to be more upside that we'll return one way or another.
Adrian Hammond, Analyst
Okay, great. And then if we can talk about Obuasi. You've mentioned three issues including equipment breakdowns, availability, operational delays every six months. It seems to be something unfortunate there. Do these issues—are they temporary, or do you think these risks are ramped up there?
Alberto
So look, the main, main issue was the fatality. I don't think that—before the fatality we were heading towards—the first quarter was fine and we were heading towards delivering on our target for the year, which was between 300 and 350, something like that. We would have done that. But as you know, the fatality in an ore pass, the way it happened, really obliges—we had an obligation to deeply understand why it happened, how it happened, and what we needed to do to avoid this.
We also had a catastrophic failure in the system again. And so that impacted us not only in the weeks that we had operations closed, but for example, we're not using those ore passes right now. So basically we're operating without the KMS shaft. And even without that we expect to have an annualized 300,000 in the second half. Now, we do expect to bring everybody back to normality, including the ore passes. So we're building another ore pass because remember all of the gate you use to control the flow of the ore pass was completely destroyed.
So we are building another ore pass that should be ready by the fourth quarter, and that sets well the groundwork to deliver on the 2027, which was around 325, 350 or something like that. So that's where we are preparing ourselves to, and we are thinking again that mostly without the KMS shaft we will do around annualized 300 in the second half of the year.
Adrian Hammond, Analyst
And then third question perhaps for Gillian: on the realized gold price versus market averages, they seem to be quite apart. Is this just timing, or should we think there is a reason for this such as the potential discounts that you're required to sell gold to Ghana and Tanzanian authorities?
Gillian, CFO
Thanks, Adrian. It's exactly timing. You will know that there was quite a lot of volatility in gold price change in Q2. You saw the highest drop actually since 2013. And so it's effectively the timing of sales. So our realized price was $90 an ounce lower than the kind of the consensus or the spot price for the quarter. It is related to timing. The other thing, we've got very small amounts of concentrate sales still in Brazil, 36,000 ounces. So that's a small premium or discount on the gold price, but otherwise nothing impacting us achieving market prices.
Adrian Hammond, Analyst
Thanks, Gillian. And while you're on the line, I've noticed your working capital outflows have improved quite considerably. Do you think that will reverse completely at all in 2H, or is this going to be something where we should expect a steady balance going forward?
Gillian, CFO
No, I think—thanks, and thank you for recognizing the achievement. The team is so focused on working capital, we're not anticipating any lumpiness in the second half. Of course, as your receivables are higher based on gold price, maybe there's some movement there. But we are laser-focused on working capital and don't anticipate any lumpiness in the second half.
Judith, Operator
Our next question comes from Raj Ray of BMO. Please go ahead.
Raj Ray, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Thank you, operator. Good morning Alberto, Gillian and team. A couple of questions. First, a follow-up and more clarification on Adrian's question on the buybacks. So am I correct in understanding that in periods where you pay 50% of your free cash flow as dividend, you're still willing to go above that for share repurchases? So your total capital returns could be higher than the 50% of free cash flow. Is that correct, Alberto?
Alberto
That is absolutely correct. And if it stays where it is today, that will be the case.
Raj Ray, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Okay, thank you. And then a second question. The comment you made on the growth coming in the portfolio over the next few years—can you comment on what it does to your capital intensity? Are you happy with your sustaining and non-sustaining capital intensity at these levels as you deliver on those growth, or is that expected to increase?
Alberto
No, look, I would say it's going to be stable for some years. So we are doing about 480, something like that, per ounce, which—you look at others like Technico, I think it's double and they're not investing anything. We have a very important growth pipeline within our own organic assets and you need to invest in it. So we expect to stay where it is, high, for some years, but not go higher than that.
Raj Ray, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Okay, that's great. Thank you. Yeah, that's it for me.
Alberto
Thanks, Raj.
Judith, Operator
Our next question comes from Joseph Rigor of Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead.
Joseph Rigor, Analyst at Roth Capital Partners
Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. Two items I don't think have been touched on yet. So first at Siguiri there was this announcement the government's going to force the flow of gold through their refinery. Has this occurred for you guys with Siguiri? And you know, is there any impact from that going forward?
Alberto
Thanks, Joseph. So, yeah, we are in conversations with the government. This is something that we have seen elsewhere and we work with the governments, like in Ghana. And yeah, it's just about—we have, I think they gave three months. So we believe we will find a way of how to deal with it. But we understand the asks of wanting to have more local adding value and we will again talk to the government and the ways to deal with that. So at this stage I don't want to comment more except that we believe that it's something that you can address within almost business as usual.
Business as usual means it's not any significant thing. We just need to reach to how do we do this with the government? But we have a lot of—I would say confidence. The Minister of Mines is probably very knowledgeable of the industry, understands the needs of the industry and yeah, we expect to continue constructive conversations on this front.
Joseph Rigor, Analyst at Roth Capital Partners
Okay, fair enough. And then at Iduapriem, cash costs rose pretty significantly quarter over quarter. Looking at grades, throughput, etc., it doesn't seem like there's any meaningful justification for it. Is there some color you can give there on what caused that, and if it's sticky?
Alberto
I will tell you. And it is related. There is a particular significant hit in this quarter on the royalties increase. That's it. If you look at for the quarter in terms of what we call flex costs, which is including royalties and fuel price and everything, we sort of are flat. So that is important. And then the other interesting thing that I can note: if I look at the outlook for the year for Iduapriem, we're going to be again flat in terms of the flex cost.
And then that royalty impact is reduced. Let me just say one more thing which is important. What the government did was increase the royalties, so right now the increase impact is 5%, but they reduced the COVID levy by a net impact of about 2.6%. But that you don't see in cash cost; you see it in taxes. And so there is a significant mitigation that you see below the line. So all in all the sum is Iduapriem is doing well on cost. There was some increase in mining contractor, but the bulk of it for the quarter was the royalties impact.
Joseph Rigor, Analyst at Roth Capital Partners
It's very helpful. I'll turn it over.
Judith, Operator
Our next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank
Oh great. Good morning everybody. Thank you so much for taking my questions. The first one is just a clarification if I can, Alberto. I understood from Josh and others that for that 300 to 450,000 ounce growth from your portfolio that's going to come at less than $100 million of capital and really not any additional change to the $480 per ounce of sustaining capital. Is that a correct way for me to think about that?
Alberto
We will give you more details. The hundred million—we've never talked about that. What I've said is overall we don't expect the sustaining capex numbers to increase. And the other thing that I've said is that all of the projects, I think most of them, it's going to be—I don't have the numbers yet—but it's going to be nothing significant in the scheme of things. They're very high IR projects. But of course if you need to buy more equipment in Siguiri and you need to buy more mining equipment in Sukati, that's just going to come at a cost.
And I don't know how it's going to flow in exactly in the numbers, but it is nothing like you're going to have billions of dollars that you have to do an expansion. So there will be no other projects that are as high IRs as this one. That's the point I've tried to make. In Q3 we will give probably some more detailed estimates of what we're assuming, but most of it is just more mining and the costs that are involved with that.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank
Okay, sorry. I heard a $75 million number that was put out. I think you mentioned it and so I thought that was for everything. Sorry, maybe it was my misunderstanding. Okay, so that was my first clarification. Thank you for that. The second I wanted to focus on was on your costs and I appreciate that. You know, the higher gold price impacts the royalties, the higher fuel price impacts the cost as well. Can you maybe just talk about some of the other inputs that maybe you are feeling some inflationary pressure on? Maybe it's labor, maybe it's, you know, consumables. Are you seeing anything in those areas that are also impacting your costs?
Alberto
Thanks, Tanya. Let me—probably the number I did mention was 75,000 ounces additional in Cuyaba. I don't know if that's what—I didn't say it wasn't millions, but ounces additional in Cuyaba. Look, in terms of the costs, how do we—the inflation impact in the half year is a bit larger than what we—so it's usually it's been 5%, it's about 5.8%. And this is excluding the fuel price. And the fuel price, on the half and half, it's about $20 an ounce. So it's not significant, but everything adds up to it. So when you look at the impacts—and this I'm talking again half on half year—you're having about 60 on inflation, you're having about 23 in fuel price and exchange rate like 46. And then you have the impact of the royalty that is significant. So that all adds up to a flex cost that is higher, a bit higher than what you see in the numbers. If you go to our cost for the half year, cash cost is 1,436.
The flex cost is a bit higher than that. So which means that we've been able to lower a bit versus the flex cost. I don't know if that's helpful.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank
And I'm just wondering, as you, you know, is it labor? Is labor, you know, inflationary above the 3 to 5% in your portfolio. I'm just trying to understand, excluding that fuel and royalties, what else is, you know, just overall inflation? Just trying to understand it. And I know you've reduced, you know, on your productivity and optimization of assets separate from this, about 2%. So you're gaining a little bit there. I'm just wondering where else am I seeing those pressures? Maybe.
Gillian, CFO
Tanya, I can just say that we're not seeing anything out of the ordinary in terms of inflationary pressure within the jurisdictions that we operate, particularly around labour. What we would say is it's a relatively fixed cost business, especially in the short term. And so, yeah, if you kind of look at the volumes and the cost base, you can see that it's those primary drivers for the costs are the macro factors that we are kind of trying to manage as best we can.
But there's nothing outside of that that we would highlight as an issue for us. And we are again expecting really quite strong cost performance in the second half in line with the sort of volume profile that we are anticip.
Alberto
I'm not going to say whom, but we have heard others talking about like extraordinary cost and you see their impact. We haven't seen that. That's just.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank
Okay, well, that's good. And then my final question, Alberto, is to you. When you put up a slide and you showed your tier one portfolio, which you know, has a nice production of over 500,000 ounces, great crops, and then you have your tier two that, you know, obviously brings up the cost structure. How do you think about that tier 2 portfolio? Like if you, you know, it's always, you know, hindsight, 20 20, if you didn't have that portfolio, you know, would you theoretically trade higher valuation with that, you know, cost base? But I just kind of think, I wonder how you're thinking about those tier 2 assets. What makes them important to see within the portfolio? Maybe just review the, you know, maybe it's exploration upside, maybe it's increasing mine life.
I'm just trying to understand why they're important.
Alberto
Tanya. It's interesting, you know, we were at some point trying to sell one of the assets that was Tier two. And then at these gold prices, it's impossible to get the right value because it's sort of in nature that a lot of the offers come like at consensus pricing and with very conservative views of the gold price in two or three years. And we value them at futures, they're valued much, much more. So it wasn't, it was no secret that we were trying to buy, sell the cbsa and, and I can tell you the cash flows for this year are like 60% of what we're going to receive by selling it.
So if what we now have in our tier 2 assets is. And the only one that is not working that well and is improving is Sunrise and you see in the performance. But again, talk about cbsa, it's working like a little charm. It's been increased its life from three to five years. Silver obviously is now a byproduct and it's a blessing in cbsa. But the free cash flow is generating is amazing and so we have no rush to dispose in the current environment of tier 2 assets.
Different was the case for example of Sierra Grande. That was just too small and it was just, it drew on a lot of management time for the money that it produced. And so we're happy to have disposed of that one, but the rest were very happy to keep it. And then you have assets that like Seguidi that are turning and will turn into tier one. So at this stage we're quite happy with our nine operating assets. It's a footprint that we can manage easily.
We will see in the future what happens. But for now we're quite happy with that. Nine operating assets.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank
Okay, great. Thank you for taking my question.
Alberto
Pleasure, Tanya. Thank you.
Judith, Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this stage I will hand over to Stuart Bailey for questions from the webcast.
Stuart Bailey
Thanks Judith. So the first question I'll ask is from Arnold Van Grahan at Nedbank. He says afternoon team, solid results and proper long term delivery. Says my question is where do you see the most compelling near term growth optionality in the portfolio? Also please talk us through your risk adjusted return methodology. Are you seeing good projects in certain jurisdictions that fall short once you add the risk component to your assessments?
Alberto
Oh, that's an interesting question. Look, the near time optionality is in those five assets that are the core of the growth portfolio, Obuase, Siguri and Cuyaba. And as I said, there is a lot of focus attention even with a centralized team, even though it will be delivered by each of the assets. We want to understand what are the bottlenecks, what do we need to do, what we need to do in brownfields, what we need to do in license to operate, what we need to do in tsf, what we need to do in communities and have a very clear centralized view of that.
And that's what we're working on. So those are the best near term optionalities that we have and those are the ones that we are working to present in Q3, the risk adjusted returns, we do have different discount rates obviously for each. Even though we have a company weighted one, we have a different risk adjusted return. So they all, for example these growth projects in different areas in Africa, they will all have to face the hurdles. Now what I've said is they are so profitable that with all of that risk because it's little investment to a significant impact in the growth—take whatever in Siguiti, if we go from three to 350 or 375, that's 50%. Like that's, I'm sorry, what would be 20% increase in the production and with very significantly little capital. So even though we do explicitly do risk adjusted returns, they are way above any hurdle that we have for investment.
Stuart Bailey
All right, thanks for that, Arnold. The next question is from Robert Kellaway who says please update on the connection of Sukari to the Egyptian national grid in light of the operation's heavy dependence on HFO fuel generation. And Robert, just very quickly, the feasibility on that 80 megawatt grid connection is almost complete. We've got all the regulatory approvals we need and all going well. We're looking at commissioning early in 2028. The work to do between now and then is just to make sure that there's certain upgrades to the grid just to ensure stability once that's connected. But just for the meantime, remember, we do have the 30 megawatt solar facility there. That's working like a charm, so no problems there. Alberto, one other from Martin Creamer, which is just your thoughts on AI. Are we using any in the business or for exploration or for safety?
And do you think it can improve efficiency?
Alberto
I think we can ask Marcelo, who's the expert on that. But we are using AI, but give us some—I said of your wisdom.
Marcelo Godoy, Chief Technology Officer
We have been implementing AI across the organization for quite a long time, especially machine learning, which we have been using for predictive maintenance, for process control and other activities around the mine. We also have a program to increase proficiency of AI across the group. So we have selected a single provider, blocked everything else, and our technical teams and operating teams have access to generative AI for general tasks. We are not in the era of genetic AI. We have some proof of concepts going on, but given the security issues that we have with that type of technology, we are taking a very cautionary approach to deploying that type of technology. But we are very advanced in our adoption across the group generally.
Stuart Bailey
Great, thanks, Marcelo. I think that's it from the webcast and we don't have any other questions on the line. Alberto, if you give us a closing remark before we wrap up.
Alberto
Thank you. Okay. Yes, look, mining, I always say it's a normal curve without the right hand side, so there's always issues. This one was particularly difficult and we. The fatality in Obuasi impacted us in many, many ways. But apart from that, which is very bad, but apart from that, that impacted Obuasi, we have some impact in Sunrise. But the portfolio effect, Tropicana doing much better and many others leads us to relatively stable production in the first half.
We expect in the second half, if things go as expected, and that's always an if, we wouldn't have any additional surprises to have an increase in the second half by about 6%. So that will also lead to. We expect cash costs in the second half to actually go down versus the first half just because of higher production, obviously higher denominator, and that will flow well. The other thing that I'd like to highlight is the free cash flow. Because in the end you can talk about cash cost and who's better.
You can talk about in sustaining, you could talk about all in costs. But in the end what matters is what flows to the bottom line and we do exceptionally well there. Our increase in the half, or 36% higher than anybody else, much higher than most of them, is something that we are proud of and this is in spite and something that we had prepared for the questions but none came which was the tax thing. We had an unusual lumpy tax in the second quarter of about 540 million.
We expect half of that in Q3 and half of that in Q4, which by definition in the gold price stays where it is today, should significantly improve the free cash flow in relative terms in Q3 and Q4. So we are very comfortable where we are. We expect, as we said, to be comfortably within guidance and we expect to keep making the most of this high gold price environment in terms of what we can deliver to our shareholders. We were clear that it's going to be if the gold price stays where it is, above the 50%.
We are already in the $1 billion of net cash. So we're looking very much forward to a strong second half in all fronts. Obviously with a little grace from God that you always need. Thank you.
Judith, Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's event. Thank you for joining us. And you may now disconnect your lines.
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