JPMorgan Chase & Co. equity strategists project that the S&P 500 index will reach 8,000 by the end of 2026, calling the bears an extinct species. Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) bettors also assign a 35% probability to the index closing above that level.
The S&P 500 closed the previous session at 7,551.81, meaning JPMorgan’s 8,000 target would represent a gain of nearly 6% from current levels.
‘Extinct Species’ and Equity Resilience
During JPMorgan’s 2026 Global Macro Conference, the firm reported that the United States economy remains resilient. Even though data, as per JPM, shows that investors haven’t completely maxed out their stock purchases, they would prefer to buy the dip rather than chase the index at current levels.
According to the strategists, “None of the speakers made a bearish equity case, and bears were described as ‘an extinct species’ in this cycle.”
A central message from the conference was that “duration pain” is “coexisting alongside equity gains, at least for now.” The firm’s investor survey reinforces a mindset to stay with United States equities, with 43% of respondents expecting the S&P 500 to be the “consensus return leader” through year-end.
This institutional outlook aligns with sentiment on prediction platforms. On Polymarket, a contract asking “What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?” shows the “>$8,000” bracket leading with a 35% probability. The next highest bracket, $7,500 to $8,000, holds a 20% probability.
AI Capex and Yield Thresholds
JPMorgan highlighted a structural shift where corporate earnings are less rate-sensitive than in past cycles. AI-led capital expenditure and resilient earnings provide core equity support. Consensus estimates project AI capital expenditure will reach $900 billion by year-end and exceed $1.2 trillion by the end of next year.
Strategists noted that because technology and growth stocks comprise 34% of the S&P 500, the index remains sensitive to long-term yields. According to JPM, the market’s feared threshold for 10-year US Treasury yields has drifted higher. Caution now builds near the 5.5% mark, with 6% viewed as the “scary level.” Until that threshold is reached, the cost of capital will not organically slow the corporate investment cycle.
How Have Stock Markets Performed in 2026?
The S&P 500 index has advanced 10.11% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 11.80%, and the Dow Jones gained 6.36% YTD.
On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. SPY fell 0.44% to $754.05, while QQQ rose 0.026% to $704.72. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 1.15% lower at $515.22.
In premarket trading on Thursday, SPY was up 0.87%, QQQ gained 1.15%, and DIA advanced 0.79%.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image Via Shutterstock
Login to comment