Canadian Pacific Kansas (NYSE:CP) held its second-quarter earnings conference call on Wednesday. Below is the complete transcript from the call.
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Access the full call at https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/5395878/44D988DDA66BA4A29C55E57074175A30
Summary
Canadian Pacific Kansas reported a 4% volume growth and 13% revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026, with an operating ratio of 61.6% and earnings per share of $1.27, up 13% from the previous year.
The company continues to benefit from its unique network connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, with new records in grain, energy, and chemical volumes, and expanded services such as the Southeast Mexico Express and Mexico Midwest Express.
Management remains optimistic about future growth, citing a robust commercial pipeline and strategic investments in locomotive fleet modernization and infrastructure improvements, despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
Operational highlights include improved train speed, terminal fluidity, and locomotive productivity, although safety metrics showed an increase in accidents and injuries.
The company maintains a strong financial position, with expectations for continued double-digit earnings growth in 2026 and strategic capital allocations supporting long-term shareholder value.
Full Transcript
Leo, Operator
Good afternoon. My name is Leo, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to CPKC's second quarter 2026 conference call. The slides accompanying today's call are available at investor.cpkc.com. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad.
If you would like to withdraw your question, press star, then the number two. I would now like to introduce Chris Debru, Vice President, Capital Markets, Tax and Treasurer, to begin the conference call.
Chris Debru, Vice President, Capital Markets, Tax and Treasurer
Thank you, Leo. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I want to remind you this presentation contains forward-looking information. Actual results may differ. The risks, uncertainties and other factors that could influence actual results are described on Slide 2, in the press release, and in the MD&A filed with Canadian and U.S. regulators. This presentation also contains non-GAAP measures as outlined on Slide 3.
With me here today is Keith Creel, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Nadeem Velani, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John Brooks, our Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer; and Mark Redd, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. The formal remarks will be followed by Q&A. In the interest of time, we would appreciate if you limit your questions to one. It is now my pleasure to introduce our President and CEO, Mr. Keith Creel.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Okay, thanks, Chris. And again, thanks for everyone joining us on the call today. As I always do, I start by thanking the 20,000-strong team of railroaders we have producing these excellent results. I remain extremely proud to serve with each one of you. So thank you for your efforts and your sacrifices. The performance, if you look at it, reflects the strength of this CPKC franchise, the resilience of our business mix, and the continued benefits of uniquely connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico to the only single-line rail network that uniquely serves all three countries.
We brought these railroads together just over three years ago to create something unique: a network capable of unlocking new supply chains, expanding market access, increasing competition across North America. And we're doing exactly that. With each passing quarter, that vision is becoming a reality. So the results for the quarter: the team delivered volume growth of 4%, revenue growth of 13%, an operating ratio of 61.6%, earnings of $1.27, which is an increase of 13%.
Results were driven by a combination of disciplined execution by Mark and the team, strong service performance, and continued growth across many of our key franchises. Operationally, the railroad continues to perform at a very high level. During the quarter we established new records across a number of the key operating metrics, with utilization, train velocity, terminal fluidity all improved year over year, demonstrating the ability to safely and efficiently move more freight across the network while creating additional capacity.
For on the growth initiative side, what continues to excite us the most is the opportunities ahead. The rationale for combining CP and KCS is pretty simple: create the first and only single-line railroad that links Canada, the United States, and Mexico, and leverage the network to generate value for our customers and our shareholders. Today we're seeing the strategy translating to these tangible results. During the quarter we established volume records in grain, energy, chemicals.
We also advanced several important commercial initiatives to reinforce the long-term growth story of our network and franchise: the launch and the momentum behind our enhanced Southeast Mexico Express service, continued growth on the Mexico Midwest Express service, the opening of another Americold facility, this time at the Port of Saint John in Atlantic Canada, and continued increases in traffic flows between Canada and Mexico via the CPKC land bridge that uniquely is enabled by this North American franchise.
Perhaps most importantly, as we look forward, our commercial pipeline remains robust. Customers across multiple sectors continue to look for ways to simplify supply chains, reduce friction at borders, increase resiliency, improve transit performance. CPKC is uniquely positioned to help them achieve those objectives. So in closing, as we enter the second half of the year, we do so from a position of strength. Our network is performing extremely well, our service product is strong, our growth pipeline continues to expand, and while uncertainty remains in parts of the macroeconomic environment, we're encouraged by the improved market conditions across several markets. It's a growth story: growth in cross-border traffic, growth in these supply chains, growth enabled by a network that is uniquely created in North America by CPKC. We're still in the early chapters of this story, realizing the full potential of this franchise. We've led the industry in revenue and earnings growth the last two years, and we're well positioned to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth in 2026. So with that said, I'm going to turn it over to Mark to elaborate a bit on operations.
John Brooks will come on the markets, maybe on the numbers, and we look forward to the Q&A session. Mark, over to you.
Mark Redd, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Keith, and good afternoon. I want to begin by recognizing our team of railroaders across North America for another outstanding quarter of execution. The commitment, discipline, and focus enable CPKC to deliver record levels of operating performance while continuing to provide customers with safe and reliable service. In the quarter, we set second-quarter records across a number of key productivity metrics including train speed, dwell, locomotive productivity, and fuel efficiency.
These results reflect the strength of our operating model and, most importantly, the dedication of our railroaders as we continue to execute at a very high level every day. As we mark one year since completing the consolidation of our U.S. and Canadian operating systems, the benefits of that work continue to be realized across the network. Our teams are aligned around common processes, sharing performance measures, and real-time visibility across the network.
This is allowing us to identify opportunities quicker, resolve issues faster, and make better decisions as we continue to realize the benefits of the operations as one railroad. Operating performance remains a critical focus area. The visibility and coordination created through the integration of our Canadian and U.S. operating systems allow us to manage train execution across the network with greater precision and consistency than ever before. The result is a more fluid, efficient, and consistent railroad, delivering even stronger service and asset utilization across the three-nation system.
Turning to safety, this remains our top priority. During the quarter, both personal injury frequency and train accidents increased versus a year ago but still remain 1.0 for FRA train accidents and 0.96 for FRA personal injuries. While we are disappointed by these results, we remain fully committed to continuous improvement. Safety is a journey that requires constant diligence, learning, and engagement. We're taking action to address the underlying trends and remain focused on ensuring every employee returns home safe at every shift while continuing to improve the safety of our operations.
Returning to our locomotive fleet, we have now received all 70 Wabtec locomotives scheduled for delivery in 2026. We remain on track to begin receiving Progress Rail locomotives in the second half. Building on the 100 locomotives received from Wabtec last year, we continue to make significant investments in fleet modernization to support the long-term growth and efficiency of our Canadian Pacific Kansas network. These investments are already supporting improved reliability and efficiency across the network, particularly on our transcon operations in Canada where the new units have been deployed.
As additional locomotives enter service, we expect further benefit through improved asset availability, network resilience, and operating performance. Finally, our engineering team has been consistently delivering exceptional productivity. Their work has supported record grain loadings while maintaining strong network performance. Importantly, rail and tie replacement continues to progress ahead of schedule. Our rail and tie crews have increased year-over-year installation productivity by 18% and 59%, respectively.
We fully expect to be off the main line in Western Canada well before the start of the fall harvest season, positioning us to support customer demand during one of the busiest periods of the year. In closing, the railroad continues to perform at an extremely high level. As a note, John and I spent some time on the railroad last week, and we came away pleased with what we accomplished while also identifying the areas of further opportunity. That's what true PSR looks like.
I always remember, A-plus today is B-minus tomorrow, as we continue to drive for continuous improvement. Strong execution by our employees, the benefits of strengthening our integration, disciplined focus on service performance, strategic investments, and continued productivity improvements across the business will position us well in the second half. With that, I'll turn it over to Jeff.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
All right, thank you, Mark, and good afternoon. Our second quarter results reflect the strength of CPKC's unique franchise and the benefits of our three-nation network. This quarter is another great example of how we continue to stack up growth from synergies and new business wins. We're realizing strong price for the value of the service and our capacity. Now, looking at our Q2 results, we delivered Q2 record freight revenues excluding fuel and all-time record GPMs, up 13% and 4% respectively.
System RTMs increased 9%, reflecting higher fuel surcharge revenue, sustained pricing strength and moderating mix headwinds. Based on our current outlook for fuel and FX, we expect continued strength in yields in the second half of the year. Moving on to the next slide, and before discussing the lines of business, I'd like to spend a moment on the consistency of our growth. Reflecting on Q2 since 2023, we've delivered 17% RPM growth, or 22% excluding fuel.
This performance, despite a challenging macro backdrop, is a result of laser-focused commercial strength of our service product, network efficiency and the capacity we can offer into the marketplace. Now taking a closer look at our second quarter revenue performance, I'll speak to FX-adjusted results. Starting with Bulk, Q2 was another record quarter for grain in revenue, RTMs and carloads, with revenue increasing 24% on 19% volume growth. Canadian grain volumes increased 24%, driven by record harvest and continued growth in markets such as Mexico.
U.S. grain volumes increased 14%, also driven by strong demand into Mexico and to the PNW markets. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic that both supply and demand will remain solid through Q3, and although it's still early to tell, the new crop across our network is off to a pretty good start. Potash revenues were up 10% on a 2% decline in volume, reflecting the impact of port maintenance and lower mine production. Looking ahead, while we continue to expect impacts from port maintenance, export demand fundamentals remain healthy, and we are working closely with our customers in this space to maximize our potash volumes into the second half of the year. To round out Bulk, coal revenue declined 18% on a 29% reduction in volumes, reducing our total RTM growth by approximately 3% on the quarter. This decline is driven by ongoing production-related challenges as our customer mines impacted shipments throughout the quarter. While run rates have stabilized and the shipment levels are improving, we expect coal to continue to be a headwind in the second half of the year. Moving on to Merchandise, Energy, Chemicals and Plastics revenue increased 8% on 6% volume growth.
The volume growth was driven primarily by higher VRU and conventional crude shipments, partially offset by lower fuel oil shipments into Mexico. Looking ahead, we expect continued growth in ECP driven by improved market fundamentals and new business wins. Forest products revenue increased 2% on 2% lower volumes. Despite the decline in volumes, we are encouraged to see continued strength and synergies led by lumber shipments into our southern U.S. markets, highlighting our unique ability to connect supply and demand across North America. In fact, despite higher interest rates and lower housing starts, June marked a record month for lumber synergy shipments across our network. Metals, Minerals and Consumer Products revenue increased 16% on 7% volume growth. Growth was driven by improving steel volumes across both domestic and land bridge lanes, along with continued strength in aggregate shipments supported by new construction activity in the southern part of our network.
Moving on to Automotive, revenue increased 19% on 8% volume growth, representing another record quarter. Growth was driven by new business wins and extended length of haul to be a compelling example of the value of our three-nation network. Closing with our intermodal franchise, revenue increased 11% on flat volumes. Domestic intermodal volumes increased 3% in the quarter. We are encouraged by the early success of our SMSMX service with CSX. With volumes increasing more than 30% from Q1, we are seeing signs of improving truck-to-rail conversion opportunities supported by higher fuel prices, tighter regulatory enforcement and reduced trucking capacity.
Both our MMX and FMX services are well positioned to capitalize on these favorable market dynamics. International volumes declined 2% as we lap strong pull-ahead on prior-year comparisons. Looking ahead, we expect to return to growth in International, supported by our strong service products from the Port of Vancouver and as we execute specific growth initiatives at the Port of St. John and also Lázaro Cárdenas. So in summary, the pipeline of unique growth opportunities is strong, and we continue to capture pricing momentum across our book of business.
With improvements in the freight demand trends, continued synergy realization and a growing pipeline of new business wins, I remain very confident in our ability to deliver mid single digit volume growth in 2026. With that, I'll pass it over to Nadeem Velani.
Nadeem Velani, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
All right, thanks, John, and good afternoon. We delivered another quarter of strong volume growth, disciplined execution and effective cost control. These results underscore the strength of our franchise and our ability to translate our unique opportunity into earnings and cash flow growth. We continue to realize merger synergies, while Mark and his team are delivering excellent operating performance and customer service. I'm very pleased with the underlying performance of the business and the momentum we are carrying into the second half of the year.
Now turning to our second quarter on Slide 15, CPKC's reported operating ratio was 54.6%. Our core adjusted operating ratio was 61.6%, up 90 basis points from last year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.15, and core adjusted diluted EPS was $1.27, up 13% versus last year. Taking a closer look at our expenses on Slide 16, I will speak to the year-over-year variances on an FX-adjusted basis. Core adjusted comp and benefits expense was 702 million.
The year-over-year increase was driven by higher stock-based compensation, wage inflation and volume-related costs. These were partially offset by ongoing productivity gains, improving train weights and continued operating efficiency improvements. Looking ahead, we expect to continue generating strong labor productivity in the second half of the year, with modest headcount growth supporting accelerating volume growth. Fuel expense was up 49% year over year.
The increase was driven primarily by a 52% increase in on-highway diesel price along with higher volumes. This was partially offset by a 4% improvement in fuel efficiency, driven by increased train weights and improved locomotive productivity. Materials expense was up 3% year over year. The increase was primarily driven by inflation, including the impact of higher fuel price on our non-locomotive fleet, partially offset by efficiency gains from contract optimization and lower locomotive material costs.
Equipment rents were 6% lower versus prior year, reflecting improved asset utilization, stronger network velocity and improved cycle times. Depreciation and amortization expense was up 5%, driven by a larger asset base. Core adjusted PS&O expense was 585 million. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher casualty costs and inflation, partially offset by productivity initiatives and operating efficiencies across the network. In reviewing the quarter, I'd highlight the strength of the underlying business performance and execution.
Strong volume growth, disciplined pricing and continued productivity improvements enabled us to deliver another quarter of double-digit earnings growth while absorbing several notable cost headwinds. Higher casualty costs and stock-based compensation represented a 4-cent impact to EPS and a 120 basis point headwind to OR year over year. Changes to fuel price were a 130 basis point headwind to the OR. Despite these impacts, the underlying trajectory of the business remains strong.
The combination of volume growth, operating leverage and disciplined cost management allowed us to offset these headwinds and deliver strong earnings growth in the quarter. Moving below the line on Slide 17, net interest expense was $237 million, or $231 million excluding purchase accounting. The increase was driven primarily by interest on new debt, partially offset by lower commercial paper balances and debt repayments. Income tax expense was $335 million, or $370 million adjusted for purchase accounting and significant items.
We continue to expect a full-year core adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 24.75%. Turning to Slide 18 and cash flow, year to date, net cash provided by operating activities was up 8% driven by higher operating income. Our year-to-date capital expenditures were 1.4 billion, and we remain on track to deliver full-year capex of 2.65 billion, a 15% reduction year over year. Year to date, adjusted free cash was $1.3 billion, up 25% over prior year.
During the first half of the year, our disciplined approach to capital management delivered $2.4 billion of shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends, reflecting a balanced and opportunistic allocation of capital. In closing, we delivered strong financial results in the second quarter, reflecting healthy volume growth, disciplined pricing, ongoing productivity improvements and effective cost management. The business continues to generate strong earnings and cash flow, while our balance sheet and capital allocation priorities remain unchanged.
As we look to the second half of the year, continued execution across the network, ongoing efficiency and growth initiatives position us well to achieve our full-year guidance and deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll turn it back over to you, Pete.
Pete
Okay, with that, operator, let's open it up for questions. Thank you, Jenny.
Leo, Operator
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star two. As previously highlighted, please limit yourself to one question. Your first question comes from Chris Weatherby with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Chris Weatherby, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Obviously a solid quarter, but I guess I wanted to talk a little bit about what we've seen, developments with the transaction between UP, and in particular the agreement with Canadian National. I just want to get a sense of how do you feel, if it does change anything from a competitive landscape for CPKC, sort of how do you feel like you fit into the dynamics here and then the growth opportunities that you see from the combined network of CP and KC over the multi-year period of time, in light of what we've seen so far.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Of course, you might get a two-part answer here. When you say the agreement, point out the specific agreement.
Chris Weatherby, Analyst at Wells Fargo
So I guess there's two. So there's one that's contingent on the transaction, one that's not, I guess, in terms of EJ&E and potential access down through Texas. I guess maybe start there, and maybe if you want to expand on it to include both of them, here's your take.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Okay, well I'm going to go high level, John. I'll let you come in. Some of the markets I try to decouple myself, but it's tough to decouple myself from 17 years of experience, a lot of which the latter years entailed fighting for the right to kind of decouple yourselves from the whims of the Chicago operating experience inside that inner loop. So that EJ&E route that intercede around Chicago, to me, it's kind of the holy grail of Chicago from a network perspective when I have my old hat on.
So I'm very sensitive. Admittedly I understand the pain and suffering it took. I also understand more so than others, I would argue, the operational benefit of having that asset. So when I think about that deal standalone, I think Jim, good on Jeff, he understands like I understand the benefit of having that capacity and that relief valve and that through kind of interstate route around Chicago. Well, when I put my CN hat on, if I were to, and I think back and reflect, that's not unlimited capacity you just gave away, that is your insurance clause.
And maybe today you have leaking capacity. Ten years from now do you have leaking capacity? And the things that suggest just because somebody else pays for the capital there's an unlimited right of way to build sidings and to build infrastructure at some point, and these are long-term assets and long-term decisions, there's going to be accountability for that decision. You wake up in the middle of a meltdown in Chicago, especially if UP and escort realize their ambitions in the most heavily congested, busiest location in North America.
And now you're battling with UP trains and CN trains to the same capacity, and then further think this thing out, as I have a bit. How does that impact the overall complex of Chicago? Now you just put the J in play. So the questions I have, and I think about this—and I haven't quite gotten to this part of the supplemental information that's provided. I spent maybe way too much time on 84 pages of corrections and then I read Jim's letter and then I got to a little bit of the CGP stuff—I'm wondering how that changes their merger plans and how that gets tweaked and how you integrate that in, number one.
And I think about the day when the place melts down and how you decouple now and you have no relief valve. So it gives me concern. So what did you get for that? You got access to Mexico via Memphis Gateway. You get the ability to quote to a customer the two-line move perhaps for the hauling rate as opposed to a three, but it's still a three-line move. It's still a route over Memphis. Operationally it's still controlled and dispatched by the Union Pacific.
You still get to the most problematic border point in Mexico at Eagle Pass, and now you've got three railroads fighting for the same capacity going to one railroad. That, compared to our network from a competitive standpoint—operationally, going to our key markets that we serve—is disadvantaged. So a lot of information to unwind in all that. Ken, I just think in the end, good for Jim to get access in Chicago. I hope that CN doesn't have buyer's remorse in the future with what they gave up versus what they got, because I don't think they got a lot.
In all honesty, when it comes to the merger side, I think that it's a couple of steps for UP to solve a very problematic merger application. It preserves competition perhaps on those two-to-ones and three-to-twos where operationally feasible. So that helps take a couple of steps towards solving miles and miles and miles and miles and miles more of problematic steps when it comes to access. For CN coming to Kansas City, we've already got four railroads running between Kansas City and St. Louis. I'd say welcome to the party. Come ready to compete because we will. We're not afraid of competition. We never have been as long as we do our jobs and we leverage the benefits of our single-line route. I'll stand that against CN. I'll stand that against UP. John, any commercial comments?
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
I just would add on, Chris, maybe the Mexico piece. As Keith said, we're not afraid to compete. But I don't view this as very different than maybe when CN had a connection and used the route over Jackson with the legacy KCS to get to Mexico, and then they pivoted to create a route over Chicago with the UP—I think a Falcon or something—to run down to Mexico, and now they've extended their haul in another interchange to Memphis to get down to Mexico.
It didn't change our approach three years ago when they put it in place. I think we've demonstrated really strong growth on our MMX, and it's all on the backs of the service. So I just kind of view it as we've got a product that can't be replicated in the marketplace. It's the reason why in 2023 there was $100 million of what I consider—we call land bridge business—flowing between Mexico and Canada. I see us at 600 million by the end of this year and a path to get to a billion.
It's just a unique product that we're able to offer, and I'm sure there's going to be certain customers out there that the CN–UP product makes sense for on the FXE or in a certain market, and that's fine. So I stand by that. And Keith's comments on Kansas City ring true to me. You know, we have—there's four railroads that come in and out of here existing today from into the east that we compete for business. But even, I think back to when we were competing for the KCS and that was identified as such a big opportunity in lane by our competitor, and frankly we just haven't seen it.
So if they bring to light a big opportunity, it'll be an opportunity for us to compete against it, and we look forward to that opportunity.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
And there's one more point—clarifying point—I think it's important to understand too. You know, when John speaks to the business that we've won, we've competed for, and we continue to see a path of growth here from that 600 million to a billion over the future years, the lion's share of that traffic is coming from or going through western Canada, not eastern Canada. Not saying that some's not from east, but the biggest opportunity is in the west.
And from a network standpoint CN is dramatically disadvantaged to our network from those western Canadian origins. Given that we go through Minneapolis–St. Paul and now the west side of the Mississippi, for them to get into Mexico—whether it's over Chicago, whether it's over Memphis, whether it's over Jackson—they've got to go to Chicago, they've got to go east to come back west. That disadvantages route miles in a materially significant way.
Chris Weatherby, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Very helpful. Appreciate it, guys. Thank you.
Leo, Operator
Your next question comes from Fadi Shamun with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Fadi Shamun, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Thank you. John, you have been able to kind of deliver somewhere in the 300 million, 350 million of China pipeline synergy revenues for the last couple of years. Sounds like you're bullish on that pipeline going into 2027. Can you frame kind of what type of opportunity you see, kind of idiosyncratic to some of these commercial efforts you're working on? Can we assume that this will continue to kind of play out in a similar fashion that it has done in the last couple of years going into 2027?
And a quick follow-up to Nadeem, just you mentioned several notable expense items. I just wondered if you can kind of elaborate a little bit what these are and how should we think about the expense bridge as you go into the second half of the year?
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Yeah, so I'll start there. Patti, thanks for the question. I do see a really good run rate to get to that, let's call it 1.4, 1.5 billion in synergies as we close out this year. And you're right, that's about a 300, actually more than a $300 million step-up in that area. You know, I would call out that it's really coming from all the lines of business. But as I particularly look, let's say specifically to the next six to 18 months, we've just seen tremendous growth in our intermodal synergies specific to that and also our grain.
You know, we really didn't scratch the surface, and I'm going to say the early days in terms of leveraging this franchise in our grain network. And I think what we've seen with the strong crop in Canada, actually a strong crop in our upper U.S. network, as we've got deeper, deeper into the shipping season, we've seen more and more markets across our network materialize. So that's been strong. I want to say we're up 60, 70% if you look at grain out of our northern territory down into Mexico or the southern U.S. markets. And again, I can tell you I'm proud of where we've moved that needle this year. But I still think we're kind of in the early innings of really kind of figuring out those flows to compete. And, frankly, I think I talked about this previously, I just spent some time in Mexico looking at these facilities, and the capability to enhance their throughput capabilities that will drive volume growth is still out there. You know, as much as I'm proud that we've taken the MMX service out to about 70% capacity levels, you know, I'm still challenging the team, particularly in this freight environment right now, on how we begin to push the envelope to what a second train pair could look like on the MMX. And that's really without not a whole lot of reefer growth that we're still working on, that we're just seeing ramp up in that space. So I'm optimistic about that. And then maybe I'd also point out, as much as I think Keith mentioned it, as much as I'm pleased about our closed-loop automotive program, there's still some outliers out there that I expect to make headway in over the next six to 12 months in contracts that I think will also look to leverage the benefits we can provide with that.
So those are kind of the call-out areas.
Nadeem Velani, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Maybe I'd just point out a couple things. Casualty, stock comp, and incentive comp were about a 5-cent headwind versus a year ago, maybe around close to about 150 basis points. So I think about with those headwinds, if they weren't there, probably closer to a 60 OR. And I’ll just leave it at that.
Fadi Shamun, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Thank you.
Leo, Operator
Thanks. Sorry. Your next question comes from Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Chappell, Analyst at Evercore ISI
Thank you. Good afternoon, Mark. John just laid out a pretty broad-based growth plan. I know a lot of it's unique to Canadian Pacific Kansas, but it feels like for the first time since the merger you've had some real strong macro tailwinds that are building as well. I know you're going to add a little headcount in the second half of the year, but lower than the volume growth expectations. When you think about the next couple of years and the resources, you've created a lot of productivity thus far the last couple of years.
But how do you think about aligning resources with the type of growth profile that John's laying out over a two- to three-year period?
Mark Redd, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Well, I think it's just the value of how we do business with PSR. John's talking about what he's doing in the coming months. We're in the background understanding what kind of crews we need, what kind of locomotives we need to put in front of it, containers, boxcars, whatever it may be. So we're steadily looking at the demands of equipment, people. On top of that, I'm looking at synergies of the agreement that we just signed with the—I'll say signed—that we just implemented with the south, of what I would say south of Heavener, Oklahoma, down to the border at Laredo, which is the old Mid-South agreement, which I'll probably get into too much detail, but it's an agreement that I worked up under. It's almost like an hourly agreement. We talked about an hourly agreement. It's a daily agreement, and that would take care of some of the headcount that we need. We'll get some synergies plus headcount out of that, and then we can use that headcount for the future business that John wants to do with grain. But we still have opportunities with doubling up trains. We've got some opportunity with train length that we'll continue to work through.
And that's just the southern part. Obviously we have the I agreement just on the north end of North Dakota, Minneapolis, all of those locations. So we have workday schedules we could change with those to add people quickly or means time of day quickly. So that's what I would say. We'll stay right out in front of John and we'll communicate constantly to understand what's next, what's the opportunity. Good news is they just don't come on board tomorrow.
I mean, we've got plenty of time to plan and we have locomotives that's coming on board as well.
Leo, Operator
Thank you. Next. Your next question comes from Brian Ostenbeck of JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Brian Ostenbeck, Analyst at JP Morgan
Hey, afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Hey John, can you just give a little bit of commentary on yields here? I know the headline number is a bit noisy with fuel and FX, so maybe some near-term commentary to help set the stage for the third quarter. But where are underlying core renewals coming in? Do you still have potentially some repricing or length-of-haul opportunities that are still kind of trickling through as you get more of the legacy KCS and CP put together, or is that pretty much done?
So just want to hear a little bit more about that, especially in this stronger truckload environment. Thanks.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Yeah, you know, we're still seeing a pretty good length-of-haul, Brian, enhancement, I think this quarter, year over year, about 3%. And, you know, I talked about some other land bridge opportunities and where I see some synergy growth yet to come. Those are pretty big length-of-haul opportunities that are needle movers. So there's some of that noise, I think good noise, still at play that sometimes can impact our mix a little bit on that longer lanes-of-haul business.
You know, pricing, I'm super pleased. We haven't taken our foot off the gas for, I don't know, it's been a couple years now that we've been on sort of what I would consider right at or the higher end of our guidance. You know, I think at our investor day we guided the 3 to 4% over that multiyear plan, and I would say we've been at the top end, exceeded; right now we're probably right in that exact range, and we're not taking our foot off the gas there.
I expect that to even potentially accelerate as we see what's kind of going on in the trucking space and as we all watch inflation over the coming years. So, you know, when I look at it, I think about the cents per RPM like this: I mentioned where renewals came in; mix was a little bit, call it a point or two of a headwind; and kind of your back into the balance was fuel and FX, Brian.
Brian Ostenbeck, Analyst at JP Morgan
Thank you, John, appreciate it.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Yep, thank you.
Leo, Operator
All good. The next question comes from Steve Hanson with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Steve Hanson, Analyst at Raymond James
Yeah, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for the time. Keith, I think you might have referenced it earlier indirectly, but I'm just curious how you think the deals or the concessions extracted by CN change your view of any potential concessions you might pursue. Does it put you in a stronger position, a weaker position, or is it sort of nil or not really that relevant in how you think about it?
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Yeah, I don't think anything the CN and UP did is relevant to the things that we will ask for, as it's changed our math at all, and no impact.
Leo, Operator
Your next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brandon Oglenski, Analyst at Barclays
Thank you for taking the question. And Keith, I guess, sorry to stick on the topic, but I guess more broadly, though, do you believe that what UP and CN has done is put this deal on any better competitive platform? And I guess I heard a little bit of contention there on the expanded competitive gateway pricing, so I don't know if you maybe want to elaborate on that.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Yeah, listen, I'm going to wait and let the regulator get into the weeds, but I'll stay at a high level as best as I possibly can. I think the simple answer is no. I don't think it changes the math. I think that—I'm going to give credit where credit is due—I think it's a few scouts forward in a positive direction versus where they were. I think it at least signals a bit of a realization that their railroad empire-building plans are going to have to bring more to the table to even be considered as a counterfactual case.
I think that's important. I think they did address—and kind of back to what Steve said, I missed this point—they did address our concerns relative to undue control in the KCT terminal as well as the TRRA, so I thank them for taking that seriously and addressing that. But outside of that, the problems that were there before remain. And I kind of look at it this way, you know, I look at a lens. Some would say I'm biased. I would say I'm biased by experience.
I have navigated, and I was shaped by, the experience that we went through in our own merger application and process. The knowledge that began navigating the merger process, the rules, the regulations, the statutes, the old rules, the new rules, coupled with the knowledge of how, in our experience, how I read the rules and interpret the rules—which has been truly shaped and impacted by how the STB members have done the same. And going back and reading the context of why the rules were written, going back and reading the hearings, going back and listening and thinking and reflecting on Linda Morgan's words.
You know, it's the lens that matters when you interpret these facts. And then finally, the last lens I'll look at is kind of the applicants—their behavior, past, present, future; integration history; day-to-day; anti-competitive behavior or not. Is this an entity that, when they present their facts to the customer, present their facts to the railroads, present their facts and their counter-arguments to the regulator, is it as they say, or is it as they believe?
There's often a difference in that—your truth, my truth, and the truth. And I think this regulatory body is going to get to the truth, and the truth says these facts are problematic. What was true before their supplemental submission is significant reduction in competitive options. Their enhancement to CGP is some movement, I'll give them that, but it's temporary and it's not inclusive. So if it's needed at all, is it not needed forever? If it's needed to solve a formula that says you must enhance competition, just stating your long-term solution to enhance competition, defining it as single-line service—if you go back and read the regulations and the hearings, that is not enough. Those are not my words; that's Linda Morgan's words. It's important, but it's not the only sole solution, and it will not solve enhanced competition in and of itself. Again, her words, not my words. Still creates significant monopolistic life—those are my words. Market concentration still, and now even more significant operational risk because now we've got the J in play. Still significant concerns about anti-competitive behavior, past and present.
And I don't think any of us would argue about eventual consolidation if this merger gets approved. That boulder is rolling. It's undeniable. If you read the application, the supplemental submission letter—I mean, if I've ever read a letter that said not only is this one good, the second one's better, it's great for America; we need to go to and serve the public's interest in America; we need to be a two-network operation. That's it. And I kind of shudder thinking about that as a human and as a consumer.
I was reminded of the weight of this decision yesterday afternoon when I went home and I looked at my phone, and it's kind of topical because I give Jim credit—he uses a lot of analogies about flying through Chicago and airlines and direct flights—and then I read: American Airlines, grounded system-wide. Regional airlines, mainline airlines, nobody can move. What about a world when only an American or United exist and one of the two is grounded? What happens? That's mass chaos in airlines. Now apply that same solution to railroads. You got one railroad that handles 40% of every move. But forget about the misleading comments about GTMs and OR—saying no, come on, a heavily weighted railroad that moves a lot of grain and coal, their GTMs are going to be naturally more than the railroad weighted more to intermodal. News alert: a coal car and a grain car weigh a whole lot more than, say, 10 or 11 cars.
But that's misleading. It's 43 states. In Jim's perfect world or UP's perfect world, it's two railroads—one of the two, or both of the two because of a computer glitch, gets grounded. That is too big to fail. And I can talk to each of you all day long—and perhaps some of you here, you know, ask and answer—I'm not going to convince you, but that's okay. I don't need to convince the STB, this STB body. And I know from experience they understand the gravity of this decision.
They understand those regulations better than any of us do. They understand the intent and they understand their mandate, and they have the authority to make the right decision. They have the independence to weigh the facts. So again, I'll say this: if you're a shipper, if you're a concerned party that's going to comment, pay attention to what's going on. Don't get led down a false narrative. Do your math, do your own homework, form your own opinions and file your comments.
State your facts, because that's ultimately what the record is going to be decided upon. And if those facts are known and understood, nothing that UP and CN just submitted changes it. With problematic facts, they lead us to a place that is not in the best interest of the public, not in the best interest of this network. That's the way I feel. That's what I believe, based on my lens.
Brandon Oglenski, Analyst at Barclays
Thank you, Keith.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Thank you.
Leo, Operator
Your next question comes from Ken Hexter of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Ken Hexter, Analyst at Bank of America
Hey, great. Good afternoon. Hey, Keith. You actually started out almost complimentary of the deal of what Jim was doing. I would have said almost supportive, but I think your last answer suggests perhaps still not. But he did toss in there mixing up Canadian Pacific Kansas in the mix with BN and CSX. I'd love to hear your thoughts there. And then, Nadeem, did you just end your answer there with the 60%, or was that suggesting your launching point as to what we should look for into the second half?
So maybe a sub-60 in the second half, is that what you were throwing out there?
Nadeem Velani, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, that's fair. I think we're going to see sequential improvement in RTM. We're going to see significant acceleration in volumes compared to the first half. And so overall the revenues are going to be better and we're going to see operating leverage coming out of that. And my expectation would be to have less casualty expense than we had in the first half of the year. So I think some of those items can be very accretive to the earnings and the OR.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
To your question, I mean, bottom line up front, I'm adamantly opposed to additional rail consolidation for all those reasons I've talked about. But if it's forced, we're not going to stand still. We can't stand still and compete to our best. So I'm not going to tell you what partner. I can make a value proposition case with a host of partners, but rest assured, this industry won't sit still if UP and NS come together. It's a matter of time. There's going to be additional consolidation.
There has to be. To be able to compete against that go-live that would be created. And in any of those scenarios, this team, this network, offers pretty compelling value.
Leo, Operator
Thank you. Thanks, Nick. Your next question comes from Walter Spracklin. Walter with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Walter Spracklin, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
Thanks very much, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Keith, you and BNSF have both argued that progress can be made, agreements can be signed without the need for mergers. And certainly this deal between CN and Union Pacific is not contingent on the merger. It happens immediately. I'm referring to the ... and the Eagle Pass through Memphis deal. Does this prompt you now, or maybe you've already been doing it, but couldn't you now, or will you look to cement your own deals, your own agreements with either the BNSF or what you have with FMX through CSX?
Is there opportunity to add on to that with CSX and is there any opportunities that you see when you look at your routing where track swapping or track rights swapping with the BNSF might make sense as well?
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Yeah, Walter, undeniably. In either case, when you've got two willing parties, you can do a lot of things. You know, I've looked at our network. There's a menu of options. There's things we can do with VM, there's things we can do with CSX outside of a merger that, quite frankly, we could put a pretty compelling product in the marketplace to go head to head. Is it going to be single-line service? No. Is there going to be some advantages to that? Yes.
But yeah, it's again, if this thing becomes a foregone conclusion, then you're going to see motivation increase to be able to do those things. I think right now people are waiting to see. This industry outside of UP and NS and maybe now CN, they didn't want a merger. Our customers, you know, if you talk to the customers, I don't care what CN agreed to with UP, what UP is agreeing to with CN, what enhancements they made to CGP, put it all in the same basket.
I don't think you're going to have a run to the bank or a run to the STB saying, gosh, this is the best thing since sliced bread, going to support—'We're going to support'—because this is a forever decision. You don't unwind this thing. But again, if it gets wound up, we've got a responsibility to respond and we will. And as a result of this, we've never been closer to BNSF, we've never been closer to CSX, we've never developed the market intelligence that we're developing now and the motivation and the route options to present some pretty compelling value propositions on the table.
So again, we won't sit still in a merger environment. We won't sit still short of a merger. Good can come out of this. The best outcome is no merger. The best outcome is perhaps, in the absence of a merger, UP and CN can do some good things together to create some value for the industry and to create some value for their customers. There's a lot of traffic out there to move and, in turn, you're going to see CP do things with CSX, with VN, VM with CSX.
They can create a whole lot of different parties because people are thinking a whole lot different than they ever have. But those outcomes can occur and UP just showed us they could—not that they didn't already know already or haven't done so already in the absence of a merger, which is exactly what the regulations require you to do before they will approve a merger.
Walter Spracklin, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
Appreciate the color, Keith. Thank you.
Leo, Operator
The next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Madison, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
Hi, this is Madison on for Ravi. Thanks for taking my question. We were just wondering how you guys are thinking about capacity in your network as the upcycle comes.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Yeah, I think I'll be quick with that answer. Mark, if you want to add. We, you know, if you keep in mind that our merger application required—we made some pretty significant investments to prepare for growth. We've done exactly that over the last three years. And what we did not anticipate when we put the railroads together was an economic recession. So we're kind of built ahead for future growth. We're in a very good position relative to locomotives, relative to car capacity, relative to track capacity.
The only thing we need to flex up on when the business and the growth comes is that incremental headcount.
Mark Redd, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, I would say incremental headcount. From the agreements that we put together, we've unlocked Shreveport, Louisiana, to where we can go in all directions with one agreement. Again, we've got 275 million from the STB promises that we put together for them. We've got the connection toward CSX where we spent a lot of money. Forty-nine-mile-an-hour track that unlocks a lot of capacity going east. Again, we said down in Mexico we spent $75 million on top of the bridge that we just built, that KCS built, that we finished.
So yeah, capacity is not going to be an issue. And again, in different areas, John and I will stay in front of that regardless of where we go with business. Committed to do that.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Yeah. So we're positioned for growth at lower incremental cost.
Madison, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
Got it. Thank you guys.
Leo, Operator
Your next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Scott Group, Analyst at Wolfe Research
Hey, thanks. Maybe just like a bigger-picture version of that question. You know, I think back to the analyst day, we were supposed to get a lot of revenue growth with a lot of operating leverage and margin improvement and mid-teens, high-teens type earnings growth. And John, I thought your slide about the compounding volume growth was helpful and it's been good, but it probably hasn't been as good as you thought at the analyst day. And I think to your point of that last question, Keith, the macro environment's just been more challenging.
I guess ultimately what I'm trying to ask is do you think we're at like an inflection point where you still have some of the synergy opportunity, plus now maybe a more supportive macro where, like, it's all going to—and now the buyback is kicking in—where it's all going to start coming together and we're going to see more of a meaningful acceleration, earnings growth, back to what you thought it was going to be. Is that kind of where you think we are now?
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Can I say it's undeniable since April of '23 that the freight environment is about as bad as we thought it—or we never thought it could be as bad as it was. Despite that, and that was really the point of that slide, was to say despite that, we've been able to stack pretty impressive growth up with not a supportive environment. So now looking ahead, I do believe, you know, although all of our growth and a lot of our growth was supported by synergies and the new products we put in place, as I said, we're still, you know, in the mid-innings of a lot of those opportunities.
So I think your point is really spot on. You continue at the pace of product development, filling in the capacity that Keith and Mark just spoke about, and we start to get a little bit of a tailwind in some of these areas. I think that becomes very compelling.
Scott Group, Analyst at Wolfe Research
And Nadine, do you think like the operating leverage accelerates with that?
Nadeem Velani, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, absolutely. I think, Scott, I mean, as you know, the last few years, I think the industry as a whole has been expecting a much more supportive macro. I think we've learned that you can't hope for that macro to recover and we've taken a more conservative approach and we've talked a lot about resources and capital investment, etc. We were on the front end of that at the beginning of the integration of our—being the beginning of our day one three years ago.
And if you look at where we are this year, I think headcount's down 500 people and volumes are up 3, 4% and accelerating and we're going to be able to accommodate that growth. So when I look at 2027 and next few years, we can accommodate it with a capital envelope that we talked about—it's 2.6, 2.7 billion—and that's with a higher Canadian or a weaker Canadian dollar that has an impact on capital. So overall we can accommodate this growth and with the capital plan that we have, it's going to generate significant amount of free cash as we've seen so far this year.
And that's going to help accelerate earnings. And so to me the operating leverage story is just beginning and you're going to see it in the back half of this year and you've seen it so far in Q2 as well.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Thank you guys. Thanks, Scott.
Leo, Operator
Your next question comes from Konark Gupta with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Konark Gupta, Analyst at Scotiabank
Good afternoon. Keith, when you sit down with your customers and stakeholders, do you feel that they are quite distracted by the ongoing industry developments? And I'm listening to everything from the UP–NS merger to the CN–UP deals as well as the potential downstream effects that everyone's talking about. It feels very helpful. Thanks.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
I think probably the way we all feel about this thing—we've been dealing with this for a while—it requires a lot of attention. All these what-if scenarios, you know, whatever it is, just getting on with it and getting to a point where we can and kind of lock and focus on what we can control and there's not all these variables I think is going to be a relief to the customers. Quite frankly, John, you can provide a bit more color here, but everyone that I've engaged with, I have not had one that said we want more consolidation.
They said we want to protect competitive options, we want optionality. We like the ability to create competitive tension between two railroads when it comes to pricing and capacity and our capital decisions and our shipping decisions. And I think that's been a common theme that's resonated with us.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Yeah, without a doubt, Konark. You know, since really COVID where we've experienced, you know, sort of the sunny supply chains, our customers are looking for more options. And frankly that is why we garnered so much support in putting CP and KCS together on our journey, because we truly did enhance competition and open new markets. And I just think, to your question, it is a distraction. I think there's a lot of narratives out there and our customers are trying to figure out what is right and what is the correct source of the truth.
And frankly they've seen the benefits we've been able to create. But I also think are questioning are they really going to get enhanced competition out of what UP–NS are proposing.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
And that's a key difference. John, what you just said, our merger brought additional options to the table, which included the never-before-available additional single-line opportunity, for instance, from Chicago to Mexico and, in our case, beyond. So it was all additive, too. Nothing was diluted. There were no options taken off the table. That's completely different than the beast that we're dealing with now. It's a substitution for. And according to the applicants, it's better than.
But if you're the shipper, it still means fewer options. Do you have the same options tomorrow that you have today in full format? If it gets approved, the answer is, unequivocally, no, you don't. And customers, by and large, after all the years of consolidation in this industry, that does not resonate with the customer. When you tell them they have fewer options—I don't care what therapy you give them—they have the memories and the trauma of the prior consolidations in this industry.
And some of the worst trauma, I'm sorry, you caused it. And the thought of giving them more power and being exposed to that again requires a therapist in some cases. And I say that in jest, but I'm not kidding. The transportation decision makers that suffered through that 30 years ago—I've been here 35, I've been railroading 35, Jen's been railroading 45—a lot of those decision makers are in senior positions, and they still lose sleep at night thinking about those integrations.
So operationally or commercially, customer, you have fewer options. It doesn't resonate but with a very small population that might be uniquely advantaged. But it's a small population. So it's single-line service—at what cost? And we never tipped the scale in our combination. We never threatened that. We just added one to the table.
Leo, Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Tom Wadowitz with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Tom Wadowitz, Analyst at UBS
Hi, good afternoon. So John, just had, I guess, maybe a couple for you on the market. So how do you think about coal—like, kind of, I guess it gets less worse through the quarter. Is there a point where you say, okay, this is the new run rate for coal, but it's like, hey, you know, the mines just can't do what they used to? Or are you optimistic that by 2027 you get back to kind of where they were? And then I guess within ECP that's been pretty good, but I think refined products into Mexico may be weak.
So, I don't know, any kind of, I guess, thoughts on those two? Thank you.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Yeah, thanks, Tom. So yeah, definitely Q2 was what we are looking at as the worst of the worst in terms of impact to our revenue and our volumes related to the coal. I think like Q3 feels like maybe Q1, and progressively it gets a little better to close out the year. We're staying really close with the customer there. I can tell you they are optimistic around increasing volumes. I would say we've definitely seen an improvement in their production, and our expectation is—and I think their view as they look to 2027—is to get back to those types of levels you would have seen last year.
And I know that they want to even grow beyond that. So I think your characterization of less worse is probably right as we move into the second half of the year. You know, ECP, you're right. It's sort of the one area that keeps me up at night is the refined fuels into Mexico. It's a really good piece of business and, I guess, supply-chain solution that we've developed. It really has been pretty well non-existent here for the last six, eight months.
We start to see, as things sort of improve relative to the situation in the Gulf, we begin to see that open back up a little bit. But as soon as things turn again, it closes right back up. I think the good news on that front is we're ready, that supply chain is solid. We've got the customs processes and that in place. So as the market shifts and those arbs open back up, I think we'll benefit from that business again. I just can't tell you exactly when that's going to happen.
Tom Wadowitz, Analyst at UBS
Yes. Okay, great. Thank you.
Leo, Operator
Next question comes from Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Bank. Please go ahead.
Benoit Poirier, Analyst at Desjardins Bank
Yes, thank you very much, and good afternoon, everyone. Just in terms of assumptions, given the movement that we've seen in FX and fuel, I was wondering if there was any change in your assumption for the year, and maybe specifically for the grain. John, you mentioned—are you counting on a stronger grain crop in the second half to kind of offset the coal weakness, or are you still baking through the three- to five-year average? Thank you.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Yeah, I'll let Nadeem comment on some of the macro assumptions, but on the grain front, you know, I think we're pretty optimistic that we're going to close out Q3 on a sort of continued strength. You know, I think the question will be sort of when exactly the grain harvest comes on. You know, I'll tell you right now, I've seen maybe more bullishness relative to CPKC-specific growing territory—so southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan—areas that even last year weren't great, in terms of drought conditions, being better.
So we are optimistic. You know, for the purposes of our Q4, we've sort of modeled what would be the three- to five-year average. But I'll tell you, last year, you know, our volumes did not move at a record pace. We were a little bit slower out of our southern territory, and then that kind of picked up—maybe a little bit different than what CN experienced in the fall. So, you know, even at that sort of average run rate we see some uptick in terms of grain helping be supportive in that.
And again, we also believe our U.S. franchise has a pretty good outlook. On top of that, Benoit,
Nadeem Velani, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
our assumption hasn't changed much. At the beginning of the year, we were closer to $1.38 on currency. We're closer to $1.40, $1.41 recently. Obviously fuel is very volatile, and there's timing issues related to fuel surcharge and the lag of what comes with the expense of that to be hit directly. So overall our fuel assumption has increased, at least for the next 30 to 60 days, and we'll see what plays out the rest of the year. But we're effectively covered.
I would just say that it may impact our operating ratio to an extent just in terms of taking on those fuel surcharge revenues at a 100% operating ratio and the lag impact, which hopefully will become positive by the end of the year.
Benoit Poirier, Analyst at Desjardins Bank
Very good color, thank you very much. Thanks.
Leo, Operator
Your next question comes from David Vernon with Bernstein. Your line is open.
David Vernon, Analyst at Bernstein
Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for putting me in here. So John, maybe as you think about how the business has grown over the last couple years, can you help us frame what the cross-border Mexico revenue is on a total shipment basis, and how much of that is actually going Western Canada or west of Chicago versus Eastern or Eastern Canada or points in the U.S.? Just trying to get a sense for the revenue that stays on the cross-border Mexico stuff, because you guys have delivered a lot on the synergy side with KCS Mexico.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Well, I can frame it up this way, David. Specific to what I consider our land bridge business, I think I guided towards a continued run rate to get to $600 million on that business this year. And you should think about—as Keith said earlier—65% of that is between Western Canada and Mexico, and the balance of eastern Canadian business. And I would tell you it is pretty equally spread between whether that's intermodal business, ECP business, automotive business, and grain business.
Those are kind of the big four.
David Vernon, Analyst at Bernstein
Super helpful. Thank you.
John Brooks, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Thanks, Dave.
Leo, Operator
Thank you. This does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd be happy to return the call to Mr. Keith Creel.
Keith Creel, President and CEO
Thanks, operator. And listen, thanks again for everyone's time. Some nice, wholesome, robust discussions this afternoon. There's a lot of noise in our industry. There's a lot of noise in the economy. But we think the noise, from an economic standpoint, it's providing a very supportive backdrop that we control. We control. We're set up for a strong second half operationally, commercially, with a bit of strengthening freight market demand at our back.
We're further exceeding not only our 26 status, but carrying a whole lot of momentum in the 27th. Thank you. And we look forward to sharing third-quarter results.
Leo, Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
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