$3.2T Chip Boom: Which Semiconductor ETFs Get The Biggest Slice?

Bank of America expects the global semiconductor market to reach $3.2 trillion by 2030, up from $1.7 trillion in 2026 — about 88% growth. The bank also raised its U.S. semiconductor CAGR forecast through 2030 to 18%, up from 14%, per an Investors Hub article, with memory and data-center products driving much of the gain.

That raises a more specific ETF question: which parts of the semiconductor supply chain are best positioned to capture it?

Memory Could Be The Biggest Growth Engine

Bank of America expects memory sales to increase from $937 billion in 2026 to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a roughly 92% increase. Server-related sales are projected to climb from $359 billion to $848 billion over the same period, implying growth of about 136%.

That makes memory and data-center exposure particularly relevant to the semiconductor ETF trade.

Broad funds already provide significant exposure to memory. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH), for example, holds Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU) at 5.54%. SMH’s largest holding was Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) at 22.09%, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) at 9.75%. The fund held 26 securities.

iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) also has Micron among its largest holdings at 9.17%, alongside Nvidia at 9.18%, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) at 8.75% and Broadcom, Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) at 7.07%.

Bank of America’s Forecast Extends Beyond Chips

Wafer-fabrication equipment spending is expected to more than double from $155.9 billion in 2026 to $359.8 billion by 2030.

That could put semiconductor equipment companies such as Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT), Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ:LRCX) and KLA Corp (NASDAQ:KLAC) in focus. All three are among SOXX’s top 10 holdings.

SMH also holds Applied Materials at 4.19%, Lam Research at 4.23% and KLA at 3.86%.

This gives broad semiconductor ETFs exposure not only to AI accelerators but also to the companies supplying the equipment required to manufacture increasingly sophisticated chips.

Broad Chip ETFs Offer Different Exposure

The distinction becomes clearer when comparing broad funds.

SMH has a concentrated portfolio, with Nvidia accounting for more than one-fifth of assets. SOXX spreads exposure across 30 holdings and, as of Sept. 9, had 79.55% of its portfolio in semiconductors and 20.38% in semiconductor equipment.

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:XSD), meanwhile, takes a more diversified approach. Its largest holding, Impinj Inc (NASDAQ:PI), represents just 4.04%, while Nvidia accounted for 2.98% and Micron 2.89%.

That difference matters if BofA’s forecast ultimately broadens from a handful of AI leaders to the wider semiconductor ecosystem.

The $3.2 trillion semiconductor forecast points to three main AI-driven growth areas: AI computing, memory and chipmaking equipment. For ETF investors, that means looking beyond broad semiconductor funds to more targeted exposure. The trade-off is that elevated valuations and AI-spending expectations make concentration, fees, and volatility important considerations.

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