Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investor Gary Black says the electric-vehicle maker’s rally may have more room to run after third-quarter deliveries beat Wall Street expectations by roughly 25,000 vehicles.
Black Sees More Upside After Rally
"If I annualize last week’s $TSLA 3Q delivery beat of 25,000 (487K vs 462K), and estimate by how much annual adj EPS should increase assuming this is a permanent volume boost, I come up with +.15/share, which should be worth roughly $32/share to TSLA stock price," Black wrote on X.
"TSLA is up +$23/share since Friday morning so there may be more near-term upside assuming the market is efficient," he added. Earlier in the day, Black remained cautious about Tesla’s "stretched valuation" despite strong deliveries.
Tesla Deliveries Beat Expectations By Wide Margin
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, topping its company-compiled sell-side consensus of 461,974. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 478,237 deliveries, while other models contributed 8,295. Tesla produced 464,391 vehicles, meaning deliveries exceeded production by more than 22,000 units.
The result extended a strong delivery run after Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter. Reuters said the automaker’s core vehicle business is positioned to return to annual growth after two consecutive yearly declines, helped partly by recovering European registrations.
Tesla shares jumped almost 5% after the Q3 numbers, while Black has argued higher gasoline prices, rather than Full Self-Driving adoption alone, likely contributed to the recent sales strength.
TSLA stock closed 2.20% higher at $378.73 on Monday, up $26.74 or 7.55% since last Thursday, when the stock closed at $354.11.
Earnings Will Test Delivery Beat Durability
Investors now turn to Tesla’s Q3 2026 earnings report, due Oct. 21.
Black’s thesis hinges on the delivery surprise proving durable. If the quarterly beat represents a permanent volume increase, his calculation implies roughly $0.15 in additional annual adjusted EPS and about $32 per share in value, leaving room beyond the gain he says investors have already priced in.
Price Action: TSLA shares were up another 0.53% at $380.73 in pre-market trading on Tuesday.
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